-Soybean exports higher than expected
-Corn exports at bottom of expectations
-Wheat exports as expected
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 1/14/21, were 2.058 MMT (75.6 million bushels), above market expectations of 900k-1.85 MMT (31.1-68.0 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 1.848 MMT (67.9 mil bu), significantly above last year’s same-week exports of 44.4 million bushels and were the highest in three weeks. China continues to dominate shipping activity, as would be expected, with 1.275 MMT loaded last week. Cumulative export inspections of 1.578 billion bushels remain up 78% from last year’s 888 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 17.7 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.230 billion bushel annual export projection vs last year’s 21.9 million/week average from this point forward. Through November official Census Bureau data, actual soybean exports were running roughly 46 million bushels larger than Inspections data. As the marketing year progresses and shipment activity slows considerably in season fashion, the monthly differences between Census and Inspections data are very likely to decline substantially, as well.
U.S. corn exports last week of 877k tonnes (34.5 million bushels) were at the bottom of market expectations of 900k-1.25 MMT (35.4-49.2 million bushels), were down from the previous week’s 1.314 MMT (51.7 mil bu) and were the lowest in four weeks. However, exports continue to run sharply stronger than year ago levels, with last year’s same-week exports being only 15.6 million bushels, resulting in cumulative exports of 680 million bushels expanding to 82% above last year’s 373 million, the largest year-over-year comparable gain in 11 weeks. Over the last 8 weeks, corn exports have averaged 38.5 million bushels/week vs 19.0 million/week during the same period last year. The decline in exports this week can be attributed to China as only 71k tonnes were shipped this week vs around 300-400k tonnes/week of late. The largest exports this week went to Mexico with 225k tonnes. We estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 53.5 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.550 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 39.1 million/week average from this point forward. Through November, official Census exports were running roughly 23 million bushels larger than Inspections.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 277k tonnes (10.2 million bushels) were in line with market expectations of 200-400k tonnes (7.3-14.7 million bushels), essentially unchanged from the previous week’s 10.3 million bushels and, again, well below last year’s same-week exports of 517k tonne (19.0 mil bu). Over the last six weeks, wheat exports have averaged 12.8 million bushels/week vs 17.9 million/week during the same period last year. Accordingly, cumulative export inspections of 572 million bushels are now down nearly 3% from last year’s 588 million with 19 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. However, with outstanding (unshipped) sales currently on the books of 232 million bushels vs 170 million at this time last year, we’re not immediately concerned of exports falling short of the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection, as shipments will need to average roughly 19 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 17.3 million/week average from this point forward.
