-Argentina reportedly considering drop of corn export ban
-USDA reports soybean sales to China
-Malaysia postpones higher biodiesel blend roll-out
-Trade estimate summary for Jan 12 USDA reports
Soybean price strength resumed overnight following the brief breather yesterday. The lack of regular rain prospects in the Argentine outlook remains supportive. Next Tuesday’s USDA reports could be a watershed moment for the markets given the extreme price moves of late. Our prereport commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42557. A summary of the average trade estimates for the plethora of reports is on the following page.
ï‚· After meeting with ag industry associations, Argentina said they are evaluating the corn export ban put in place until March 1 after it appears some agreements have been made in order to ensure adequate domestic supplies until new crop supplies become available. Argentina’s ag minister cited the agreements in helping “to decouple domestic prices from international price dynamics.â€
ï‚· There is talk China has been back in for U.S. soybeans for late summer and new crop positions, while also showing interest in U.S. corn for spring delivery periods. On that note, USDA announced the sale of 204k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
 Yesterday’s release of the Census Bureau’s official trade data for November showed soybean exports of 407.7 million bushels vs the FGIS’ reflection of monthly Export Inspections of 390.1 million bushels, a 17.6 mil bu difference. Following the corrections so far to the Census Bureau’s September data, the difference between official Sept exports and Inspections is down to about 20 million bushels from the 40 mil bu difference initially indicated. Through the first three months of 2020/21, official Census Bureau soybean exports are running roughly 46 million
bushels larger than Inspections data. As soybean exports seasonally slow in the coming months and notably decline from the record pace of late, the monthly deviations between the two will obviously shrink, but one has to be mindful when monitoring weekly Inspections shipment data of the possibility/likelihood of marketing year total soybean exports proving 70-80 million bushels larger than Inspections data. Conversely, Census corn exports in November of 150.5 mil bu were only 5.7 mil bu larger than Inspections of 144.8 million, with the difference between the two through the first quarter of the year a very typical 25 million bushels.
 Malaysia is postponing the nationwide B20 biodiesel blending mandate to early 2022 vs initial goals to have it fully implemented by mid-2021. The B20 initiative was launched in January 2020, raising the mandate from B10 previously, but the full implementation is now being delayed in order to prioritize the country’s COVID economic recovery. Earlier in the week, there were indications Indonesia’s goal to move to a B40 blend from the current B30 mandate could be pushed beyond the end of 2022, as well.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange tweaked their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop up to 17.0 MMT from 16.8 MMT previously citing better than expected late yields in some areas. This remains below USDA’s last official estimate 18.0 MMT and last year’s USDA-estimated 19.8 MMT.
ï‚· A South Korean feedmill rejected offers in their tender for 65k tonnes of feed wheat for May-June shipment as they were seeking prices around $275/tonne c&f vs supplied offers of $290-$295/tonne c&f.
Weather
Brazil saw .30-1â€+ across MGDS, Goias, Minas Gerais, the SE 1/3 of Mato Grosso and northern ½ of Sao Paulo yesterday, with totals of .20-.60†across most of the rest of the Brazilian growing regions. No major changes in the 1-5 day outlook with .75-1.5â€+ expected for most growing regions, with 1-3†still indicated for Minas Gerais and Goias. The 6-10 day period shows 2-3†in most of MGDS, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goias and at least the southern ½ of Mato Grosso, if not all of that state, while .35-1†is expected in Parana and Santa Catarina, with the GFS seeing little in
the way of rains for RGDS, while the European sees .35-1â€. Argentina was dry yesterday and will remain so until late Sunday when a front is indicated to bring rains of .50-1†and coverage of 85% to all of their growing areas by later Sunday and into Monday. The rains will be welcomed, but moisture deficits clearly remain in some key areas. The 6-10
day period shows rains of .50-1†for the western growing states of La Pampa and Cordoba, but little to no rains are expected for the rest of their growing regions. Temps will run below average across the Argentine growing regions in the next 10 days.