-Fund buying continues to fuel grain market strength
-Criticism of Argentine corn export ban
-South American forecast maintains good rains for some, dry concerns for others
ï‚· Soybeans continue to scream higher as fund inflows feed the strength amid ongoing South American crop concerns and
uncertainty heading into the key January 12 USDA reports. Funds were estimated buyers of 30k contracts in soybeans yesterday, bringing estimated total buying over the last five sessions to 75k contracts. If the estimates are correct, the fund net long could be near/exceed the 254k contract record. Funds were estimated buyers of 25k contracts of corn yesterday (5-day total of 92k) and could be approaching the 429k contract record. Funds bought an estimated 11.5k contracts in CBOT wheat yesterday (36.5k 5-day total), 12k soybean oil yesterday (20k 5-day) and 8.5k SBM (20k 5-day). The fund long in soybean oil appears to be near/above the 127k contract record, while SBM fund positions may be nearing record levels, while still well below the record in CBOT wheat.
 Oklahoma ended up putting out their monthly crop update a day later than other state and reported winter wheat conditions at 46% good/excellent, down from 52% g/e at the end of November, but above last year’s 40% g/e at this time.
 Malaysian palm oil/product exports in December were solid at 1.625 MMT, up from 1.391 MMT in November and last year’s 1.325 MMT, led by strong exports to India of 521k tonnes vs 245k in November. Exports to China in December fell to 151k tonnes from 291k in November.
ï‚· The Argentine government continues to face criticism of their decision to ban corn exports until March 1 on the grounds of
controlling local food prices, with the CEC (exporter association) saying the move creates uncertainty for buyers about the
reliable of Argentina’s ability to supply product, while three associations representing Argentine farmers said they will hold a 72- hour strike in protest. They say the government’s move may erode farmers’ confidence in producing corn, resulting in reduced investment in the crop and lower production.
ï‚· The CME raised margins for corn, wheat and soybeans, effective today, by $100-$350/contract depending on commodity and period.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 103k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
Weather
Brazil saw .20-.80†across all Minas Gerais, Goias, northern Sao Paulo and northern Mato Grosso yesterday. RGDS continues to look dry over the next five days, while .75-1.5â€+ is expected across the rest of the Brazilian growing regions. The 6-10 day period sees rains of 2-3†in most of Minas Gerais, Goias and at least the northern ½ of Sao Paulo, if not all of that state, with .75-1.5â€+ in most of MGDS and Mato Grosso. Less than .35†is seen for most of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana, which will continue concerns for RGDS. In Argentina, .45-1â€+ fell across most of Buenos Aries yesterday, bringing welcomed moisture to these areas. Totals of .20-.60†fell in N Cordoba, which is a fringe growing area and dry weather occurred in the rest of the Argentine growing regions yesterday. A decent rain event remains on tap for late Sunday-Monday with .50-1†and coverage of 85% of all areas expected, but dry conditions until then. The 6-10 day outlook shows mixed ideas between models with the GFS indicating rains of .50-1†to be widespread, with 1-3†seen for Entre Rios and northern Santa Fe, while the European model sees totals generally less than .35†in Buenos Aries, La Pampa and the southern ½ of Santa Fe/Entre Rios, with 1-2†in northern Santa Fe/Entre Rios and Corrientes. It’s too early to have much confidence in one or the other but the European has been a bit more accurate over the last month or so.