Soybean crush by NOPA members set another new record in November, sharply outpacing last year’s and the 2018 previous record. While November soybean oil stocks were in line with market expectations, they reflected the highest for the month in eight years.
NOPA reported its members crushed 181.0 million bushels of soybeans in November, slightly above the average trade estimate of 180.0 million, but more importantly, sharply above last year’s 164.9 million and the previous November record of 167.0 million bushels in 2018. Over the last three months, U.S. total soybean crush has averaged 6.0% above NOPA-member crush, implying nationwide crush in November around 192.0 million bushels vs 196.6 million in October and 174.6 million last year. Taking this a step further, 2020/21 1st quarter (Sept-Nov) crush is implied at nearly 560 million bushels vs 524 million last year – already 36 million bushels larger than last year through the first three months of the marketing year vs the USDA’s annual crush projection of 2.195 billion bushels reflecting an estimated 30 million bushel increase from last year’s 2.165 billion bushels. Accordingly, if crush is to not exceed the USDA’s projection, Dec-Aug crush can only total 1.636 billion bushels, slightly less than last year’s 1.640 billion after the first quarter of the marketing year saw crush run 6.7% stronger than last year. With the balance sheet already projected to see the lowest ending stocks in seven years and nearing historical lows, as long as there is not a bearish supply surprise in the USDA’s January 10, 2021 reports, there is little room for crush to move much beyond the USDA’s current estimate.
NOPA reported its members produced 2.105 billion pounds of soybean oil in November vs 2.162 billion in October and 1.902 billion pounds last year, with their average soybean oil yield ticking lower for the month to 11.63 pounds/bushel from 11.67 in October, but remaining well above last year’s Nov yield of 11.53 pounds/bushel. In October, the nationwide soybean oil yield was 0.06 pounds/bushel below the yield achieved by NOPA members, a smaller deviation than the rather consistent 0.09 average in recent years. Taking this into account, we’ll preliminarily estimate the nationwide November soybean oil yield at 11.55 pounds/bushel, which would still be notably above last year’s 11.45 in November, and imply the Oct-Nov average yield at 11.58 pounds/bushel vs 11.47 last year. Revisiting the relationship between Oct-Nov soybean oil yields and the marketing year average yields we’ve discussed in the past and detailed in the first chart below, would indicate the strong potential for the 2020/21 U.S. average soybean oil yield to prove to be around 11.60 pounds/bushel this year vs 11.46 last year and in line with the USDA’s current assumption of 11.59 pounds/bushel.
NOPA reported soybean oil stocks held by its members at the end of November were 1.558 billion pounds, in line with average market expectations of 1.548 billion, but up solidly from 1.487 billion pounds in October, 1.448 billion pounds last year and reflecting the highest November stocks in eight years. Over the last five years, NOPA-member stocks averaged 1.415 billion pounds in November. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” among NOPA members in November (last month’s stocks + this month’s production – this month’s stocks) of 2.035 billion pounds was down from 2.108 billion pounds in October, but above last year’s 1.877 billion in November.
NOPA members reported producing 4.282 million tons of soybean meal in November vs 4.349 million in October and 3.893 million tons last year November, while exporting 1.082 million tons in November vs 946k tons in October and 869k tons last year – the largest single-month SBM exports by NOPA members in nearly eight years (January 2013).
