-Soybean exports remain very strong – within expectations
-Corn exports within expectations
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 12/10/20, were strong again at 2.369 MMT (87.0 million bushels), within the range of market expectations of 2.05-2.65 MMT (75.3-97.4 million bushels), right in line with the most-recent 4-week average of 89.2 million bushels, but down modestly from the previous week’s 2.856 MMT (95.0 mil bu). This week’s activity included 1.55 MMT (57.1 mil bu) shipped to China. Cumulative export inspections of 1.179 billion bushels remain up 72% from last year’s 687 million bushels at this time, leaving weekly exports needing to average roughly 25.1 million bushels through the end of the marketing year in order for 2020/21 exports to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel annual projection vs last year’s 24.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn exports last week were 887k tonnes (34.9 mil bu), within market expectations of 725k-1.0 MMT (28.5-39.4 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 753k tonnes (29.6 mil bu), but right in line with most-recent 4-week average exports of 34.1 million bushels. Last year’s exports during the same period averaged roughly 23 mil bu/week. This week’s shipments included 353k tonnes to China as the regular several vessels/week pattern continues. Cumulative export inspections of 470 million bushels are up 65% from last year’s 285 million, leaving exports needing to average a very strong 54.4 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.650 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 36.3 million/week average from this point forward. As soybean exports seasonally slow February forward, we anticipate corn exports ramping up substantially and running at a record clip during the 2nd half of the marketing year.
U.S. wheat exports last week were disappointing at 261k tonnes (9.6 million bushels), falling below market expectations of 375-650k tonnes (13.8-23.9 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 537k tonnes (19.7 mil bu), the lowest in eight weeks and 2nd lowest of the 28 weeks so far of 2020/21. Cumulative export inspections of 505 million bushels are still holding onto a minor 1% gain from last year’s 499 million, but with total export sales on the books up nearly 13% on the year, exports should not have any problem keeping up with the 18 million bushel/week “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s 985 mil bu export projection for the time being vs last year’s 17.4 million/week average from this point forward.
