-Soybean sales at very bottom of wide market expectations – marketing year low
-Corn sales within expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales within expectations/SBO sales lower than expected-minimal
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 11/26/20, were disappointing and a new marketing year low at only 407k tonnes (15.0 million bushels), coming in at the very bottom of wide market expectations of 400k-1.15 MMT and followed last week’s sales of 28.0 million bushels and average sales of the prior three weeks of 51.3 mil bu/week. This week’s Chinese activity included 133k tonnes of cancellations and 396k tonnes of previously-reported unknown sales being switched to China, resulting in total new net sales for the week of only 214k tonnes. China’s total reported purchases of 29.6 MMT compare to 9.6 MMT at this time last year. There are currently 8.8 MMT in sales on the books to unknown vs 2.9 MMT a year ago, of which at least half are likely Chinese, as well. Total commitments now stand at 1.923 billion bushels vs 953 million last year, leaving sales from this point forward only needing to average roughly 8.0 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 20.3 million/week average from this point forward. A considerable slowdown in soybean sales activity has always been anticipated and it certainly appears to have begun – as needed if exports are to not materially exceed the USDA’s projection.
U.S. corn sales last week of 1.371 MMT (54.0 mil bu) were within market expectations of 800k-1.6 MMT, but down solidly from the previous week’s very strong 83.6 MMT, while again being substantially above last year’s same-week sales of 21.5 million bushels. New sales to China of 155k tonnes were reported this week, bringing their total purchases to 11.2 MMT. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 637k tonnes, bringing their total purchases to 8.5 MMT vs 6.9 MMT last year at this time. Total commitments of 1.508 billion bushels compare to last year’s 575 million, leaving sales needing to average roughly 28.2 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.650 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 30.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week were 446k tonnes (16.4 mil bu), within market expectations of 250-700k tonnes, but slightly below average sales over the previous six weeks of 18.4 mil bu/week. This week’s sales were well above last year’s weak same-week sales of only 8.4 mil bu, though. No new sales to China were reported for the week, but the market will be on the look out for any USDA announcements in the coming days following recent talk they were again kicking the tires for U.S. supplies. Total commitments of 680 million bushels are now up 12% from last year’s 605 million, outpacing the USDA’s annual projection reflecting an expected 1% increase in exports from last year. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.0 mil bu/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export estimate vs last year’s 14.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 164k tonnes were within expectations of 100-300k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 138k tonnes, but in line with average sales of the last three weeks of 155k/week. Total commitments of 5.101 MMT are holding onto a minor gain from last year’s 4.984 MMT, currently beating the USDA’s annual export expectations for a 4% decline on the year. Soybean oil sales were disappointing at a mere 2.5k tonnes vs expectations for 8-40k tonnes, but total commitments of 390k tonnes are still up more than 17% from last year’s 332k vs the USDA currently projection SBO exports to decline 8% from last year. SBO sales will need to average roughly 17k tonnes/week vs last year’s 22k/week in order to reach the USDA’s annual projection.
