-USDA crush report this afternoon expected to show record Oct soybean crush
-Winter wheat conditions improve in last report of the year
-Russian wheat crop rated poor highest in 7 years
-Argentine grain workers strike
-Egypt buys Russian/Ukraine wheat
 This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Oilseeds Crushings report and Grain Crushings report providing data for October. The average estimate of U.S. soybean crush in October is 196.6 million bushels (195.0-197.5 million range of ideas), easily reflecting a new single-month record in exceeding March 2020’s 192.2 million bushels and would be sharply above last year’s 187.0 million bushels. The average estimate reflects nationwide crush 6.1% above NOPA-member crush for the month of 185.2 million bushels, slightly above the 5.9% and 5.8% differences in Sept and Aug. However, last year’s October crush was 6.6% larger than NOPA crush. The average estimate of end October U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.912 billion pounds (1.887-1.950 billion range), up modestly from 1.849 billion pounds in September and last year’s 1.820 billion. The average estimate reflects nationwide stocks 28.6% above NOPA-member stocks, which is in line with the last four months’ average difference of 28.9%.
 The EIA reported U.S. biodiesel production in September was 159 million gallons, down slightly from 163 million in August, but solidly above last year’s 142 million gallons, putting 2020 calendar year to date production at 1.348 billion gallons vs Jan-Sep production last year of 1.321 billion gallons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production in September was 737 million pounds, down slightly from 745 million in August, but well above last year’s 599 million as SBO accounted for 61% of total feedstocks used for production in the month vs 55% in September last year. September data completes the 2019/20 soybean oil marketing year, with 7.858 billion pounds used for biodiesel production in the year, a bit less than the USDA’s current balance sheet reflection of 7.900 billion pounds and nearly completely unchanged from 2018/19 usage of 7.863 billion pounds. Based on this data, U.S. soybean oil domestic usage for non-biodiesel purposes in 2019/20 was 14.46 billion pounds, down from 15.01 billion in 2018/19. The USDA is currently estimating soybean oil for biodiesel production will rise modestly in 2020/21 to 8.100 billion pounds, with non-biodiesel domestic usage also rising to 14.9 billion pounds.
 U.S. winter wheat crop conditions improved 3% in good/excellent last week to 46% vs market expectations for conditions to remain unchanged at 43% g/e. Yesterday’s update was the last regular weekly report of the year, as they will resume again in early April. Last year’s final fall rating was 52% g/e. Overall conditions remain the lowest in 8 years heading into the winter months, but have improved solidly since the initial 41% g/e rating in late October. At the time, the late October rating was the lowest on record going back to 1988 whereas the current rating for late November is the 5th lowest since 1988.
 Ukraine’s winter wheat crop is now 99% planted with 6.03 million hectares planted (14.9 mil acres), reflecting a moderate decline from this year’s 6.4 million hectares (15.8 mil acres) as dry conditions negatively impacted farmers’ decisions. Corn harvest is 94% complete with 26.8 MMT collected so far. If the remaining 6% of harvest sees similar yields to those so far, the final crop would be implied around 28.5 MMT, right in line with the USDA’s current estimate and down solidly from last year’s record 35.9 MMT.
 Russia’s state weather bureau said 22% of the country’s winter grain crops are in poor/bad condition, the highest percentage since 2013 for late November. Sovecon expects winter grain conditions to improve in the weeks ahead, though, given improved rains and expected warm temperatures. Nonetheless, they see the risk of around 9% of currently-planted area being lost post-winter vs the 5% loss for this year’s crop. This could prompt an increase in spring wheat area
relative to this year for the 2021/22 crop. Sovecon put very early ideas on the 2021/22 Russian wheat crop at 79.2-82.8 MMT vs this year’s 85.3 MMT.
 Argentine oilseed workers’ union and grain inspectors’ union launched an indefinite strike today as they seek higher wages amid the country’s high inflation. Argentina’s industry association of grain exporting companies calls the unions’ requests “excessive†and “outlandish,†being impossible to meet.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Jan 26-Feb 5 shipment and ended up buying 170k tonnes, with 110k Russian and 60k tonnes Ukrainian. The lowest offer was a single cargo of Ukrainian wheat at $275.00/tonne c&f ($262.00 fob), with the next six lowest offers all Russian totaling 345k tonnes, priced from $275.35-$276.95/tonne c&f ($261.85-$264.30 fob).
ï‚· Thailand tendered for 106k tonnes of feed wheat for Feb-Mar shipment with offers due by tomorrow.
 There were 100 contracts of December CBOT wheat deliveries today and 6 contracts of KCBT wheat, while MPLS saw 93 of yesterday’s 588 contracts reissued. There were 240 contracts of oats put out, while there have yet to be any corn, SBM or SBO deliveries.
Weather
Brazil was dry yesterday in Minas Gerais, Goias and the eastern 2/3 of Mato Grosso , while roughly 90% of all other growing areas saw .25-.75†rains over the last 24 hours. RGDS, Santa Catarina, Parana and the southern ½ of MGDS/Sao Paulo will see rains this week, resulting in totals of 1-3†in Santa Catarina and Parana. Totals of .50-1.5â€+ and coverage of around 85-90% look to fall in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions, which is an increase for the SE 2/3 of Mato Grosso and most of
Goias and Minas Gerais from yesterday’s ideas. The 6-10 day period shows 1-2†for most areas north of Parana, with totals elsewhere in the .75-1.5â€+ range and coverage of around 85-90%. In Argentina, only the northern ½ of Corrientes saw .25-.75†yesterday, with other areas dry. The remainder of the week only shows .35-1†for Corrientes and the northern ½ of Cordoba and Santa Fe, with all other areas dry, with all growing areas dry in the 6-10 day period, as well. Temps are expected to be below average for the next 10 days, though.