October soybean crush by NOPA members was sharply above expectations and shattered not only the previous record for the month, but also the all-time monthly record, as well. October soybean oil stocks were only slightly above expectations despite the record crush, though.
NOPA reported its members crushed 185.2 million bushels of soybeans in October, sharply above average market expectations of 177.1 million bushels, shattering last year’s previous October record of 175.4 million bushels, while also beating the previous all-time monthly record of 181.4 million bushels in March 2020. If the recent-month average difference between U.S.-total crush and NOPA crush of +5.9% holds for October, nationwide crush for the month would be implied at a massive 196.2 million bushels. Again, if accurate, crush through the first two months of 2020/21 would already be up nearly 18 million bushels from last year, eclipsing the USDA’s current projected 15 million bushel increase for the entire marketing year at 2.180 billion bushels.
NOPA reported its members produced 2.162 billion pounds of soybean oil production in October vs 1.873 billion in September and 2.030 billion pounds in October last year, reflecting an all-time record monthly production by NOPA members. The average soybean oil yield achieved by NOPA members in October was 11.67 pounds/bushel, up from 11.60 in September and, importantly, solidly above last year’s October NOPA soybean oil yield of 11.57 pounds/bushel. October represents the first month’s data in which new crop soybean supplies work their way into crush plants, allowing for the first decent look at new crop soybean oil yields. As we’re shown in past years, there is a solid relationship between October soybean oil yields and the average yield achieved over the entire marketing year. This relationship tightens up even stronger when looking at the average yield during October and November, so we’ll examine it again next month, as well. For now, though, the monthly U.S.-wide soybean oil yield has averaged roughly 0.09 pounds/bushel below the NOPA yield in recent months, so today’s 11.67 lbs/bu yield would imply a nationwide yield of roughly 11.58 lbs/bu, which we’ll look at again when the USDA releases official October data on December 1. The following chart shows the relationship between the October soybean oil yield and the U.S. marketing year average yield. Interestingly, the last three years (highlighted in red) have seen the relationship slip a bit below the long-term relationship, but has been extremely strong as reflected in the red trendline. Based on this, early ideas of the 2020/21 U.S. soybean oil average soybean oil yield would be implied around 11.56-11.57 pounds/bushel vs the 2019/20 average yield of 11.46 and the USDA’s current estimate of 11.59 pounds/bushel. The 0.02 lb/bu difference would imply annual soybean oil production roughly 40 million pounds below the USDA’s 25.265 billion pounds using their annual crush estimate of 2.180 billion pounds.
NOPA reported end of October soybean oil stocks held by its members were 1.487 billion pounds, only slightly above the average trade estimate of 1.448 billion pounds despite crush being sharply higher than expected, and were up from 1.433 billion pounds in September and above last year’s 1.423 billion pounds. October soybean oil stocks were only slightly below 2018’s 1.503 billion pounds, leaving them the 2nd highest for the month of the last 8 years.
NOPA reported its members produced 4.349 million tons of soybean meal in October vs 3.788 million in September and 4.115 million tons last year, while exporting 946k tons of soybean meal in October vs 991k in Sept and 895k tons last year.
