-Soybean sales within expectations
-Corn sales within expectations
-Wheat sales at lower end of expectations
-SBM sales at lower end of expectations – SBO sales at top end
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 11/05/20, of 1.468 MMT (54.0 million bushels) were within market expectations of 800k-1.8 MMT and were right in line with the previous two weeks’ sales of 53.6 million and 59.0 million bushels. Sales have slowed from the torrid pace of the first 6-7 weeks of 2020/21, but certainly remain solid overall. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of 565k tonnes, bringing their total purchases for 2020/21 to 27.6 MMT vs 7.9 MMT at this time last year. There are also a total of 10.5 MMT in sales on the books for “unknown” vs only 3.2 MMT a year ago, which we feel are likely at least half Chinese, as well. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.834 billion bushels easily remain record high for early November in comparison to the previous 1.414 billion bushel record in 2016/17, and are more than double last year’s 813 million bushels at this time. Based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales over the remainder of the marketing year only need to average roughly 9.6 million bushels/week vs last year’s 22.2 million/week average from this point forward and the most-recent 5-year average of 21.9 million/week average. Looking back, the average weekly sales during the 3-year 12/13-14/15 period during Nov-Aug was 11.1 mil bu/week.
Corn sales last week were 978k tonnes (38.5 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 700k-1.6 MMT, but declined significantly from the previous three weeks’ massive sales of 72-103 million bushels/week, while being the 2nd lowest of the first 10 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. This week’s activity reflected minimal purchases by China of only 11k tonnes, as their total purchases remain at 10.8 MMT. With the substantial Chinese buying this year, total commitments by all destinations of 1.345 billion bushels are up massively from last year’s 491 million and easily remain record large for early November in surpassing 2007/08’s 1.208 billion bushels. Following this week’s USDA sharp upward revision in their export projection to 2.650 billion bushels, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 30.1 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year, exactly last year’s average sales pace from this point forward and right in line with the most-recent 5-year average of 30.7 mil bu/week.
U.S. wheat sales of 301k tonnes (11.0 million bushels) were at the lower end of market expectations of 200-700k tonnes, down solidly from the previous two weeks’ 21.9 and 27.3 mil bu and were the 2nd lowest of the first 23 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. Total commitments of 627 million bushels remain up 12% from last year’s 558 million, easily outpacing the USDA’s estimated 1% year-over-year increase for the time being. However, last year saw a solid stretch of sales during Nov-Jan averaging 19 million bushels/week over the coming 13-week period so the current gain relative to last year is likely to ease. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.6 million bushels/week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 14.9 million/week average.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week of 145k tonnes were towards the bottom of market expectations of 100-400k tonnes, down considerably from the previous week’s 331k tonnes and were the lowest of the first 6 weeks of 2020/21. Total commitments of 4.671 MMT are up a minor 2% from last year vs USDA estimating a 4% decline in exports from last year at this time. SBM sales will need to average roughly 153k tonnes/week vs last year’s 162k/week average over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were easily a marketing year high at 88k tonnes, but large sales were already known given the USDA’s previous daily sales announcements during the week of 63k tonnes (33k India, 30k South Korea), which makes the reported market expectations of 30-90k tonnes a bit misleading. Nonetheless, the large sales pushed total commitments to 18% above year ago levels for the time being, leaving sales from this point forward needing to average roughly 18k tonnes/week vs last year’s 22.2k/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection.
