-Brazilian November corn/soybean export ideas raised
-Funds potentially record long in soybeans
-No USDA sales announcements
-Argentine weather focus increasing
Due to the Veterans Day holiday today, the EIA’s weekly energy/ethanol data will be released on Thursday, Export Sales on Friday and the CFTC COT data will be delayed until Monday. Soybeans were modestly firm overnight, adding to yesterday’s explosive gains, lending support to corn and wheat, as well. With the U.S. soybean and corn balance sheets moving to levels not seen in recent years, market values are adjusting quickly, while also adding risk premium in the event of a South American crop problem. Dryness in Argentina will need to be watched very closely.
 Brazilian grain exporter association Anec solidly revised higher their estimate of Brazil’s November corn exports to 4.8 MMT from 4.15 MMT just a week earlier and would be down only slightly from 5.16 MMT in October. Moreover, the new estimate reflects considerably higher exports than last year’s 4.105 MMT and would be a new record for the month in exceeding 2015’s 4.76 MMT if accurate. Based on the new estimate, March-Nov marketing year to date exports of 27.6 MMT compares to 33.1 MMT last year and would leave 6.4 MMT remaining to export during Dec-Feb based on the USDA’s 34.0 MMT export projection vs last year’s 6.6 MMT during the same period. Anec bumped their estimate of November Brazilian soybean exports up to 763k tonnes from 688k last week and compares to 2.5 MMT in October and 4.9 MMT last year November, putting marketing year to date exports at 81.0 MMT vs 68.8 MMT last year. Based on the USDA’s 81.6 MMT old crop export projection, Dec-Jan exports would only be around 600k tonnes vs last year’s 4.7 MMT.
 Wire services estimated funds were net buyers of 57k contracts in corn yesterday and would put the fund net long around 365k contracts based on daily estimated activity since the last CFTC data “as of†date of 11/03/20. The record fund net long in corn is 429k contracts. Funds were estimated buyers of 33k contracts in soybeans yesterday. Based on estimated activity since last Tuesday, the implied fund net long in soybeans around 278k contracts would be a new record based on the current record of 254k contracts. Funds were estimated net buyers of 9.5k contracts in SBM, 5k SBO and 9k CBOT wheat, as well. The implied SBO fund net long of around 105k contract would be the closest of the three to the current record of 126.5k.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Ukraine’s corn harvest is now 72% complete, while winter wheat planting is 95% complete.
ï‚· Yesterday, Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Jan shipment with offers due by Thursday. In their previous tender on October 22, Algeria bought around 700k tonnes of expected EU origin.
Weather
Widespread rains of mostly less than .50†were seen across most of Brazil’s growing regions yesterday, with the exception being RGDS which was dry. Daily hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .75-1.5â€+ to the majority of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, with the southern ½ of RGDS to miss the rains. Additional rains of .75-1.5â€+ with 95% coverage is expected in the 6-10 day period, with 2-3†totals possible for Minas Gerais. In Argentina, rains of .20-.60†fell across Cordoba yesterday, but was dry elsewhere. The models are mixed for the rest of the week, with the GFS sticking with the idea of dry weather to dominate and only rains of .50-1†in most of La Pampa and Cordoba, as well as the southern ½ of Buenos Aries while the European sees totals of .50-1†to fall in all but Corrientes. The GFS has had a better handle on things of late. Rains in the 6-10 day period look limited to .25-.75†across far northern Santa Fe and into most of Corrientes, but dry conditions are expected elsewhere.