-Soybean sales solid – towards upper end of expectations
-Corn sales strong again – above expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations
-SBM sales solid/SBO sales limited
While the pace of soybean sales has slowed from the torrid levels to start the marketing year, it remains impressive nonetheless. Soybean sales last week of 1.531 MMT (56.2 million bushels) were towards the upper end of market expectations of 800k-1.7 MMT and held mostly steady from the previous week’s 59.5 million, but were below the incredible average sales over the previous 7-week period of 97.8 million bushels/week. New net sales to China this week were only 299k tonnes (as they switched 579k tonnes as previously-reported unknown purchases), but new net sales to unknown were at least 630k tonnes. The largest non-Chinese sales of the week went to Egypt with 284k tonnes. Chinese total commitments now stand at 26.8 MMT vs 7.1 MMT a year ago. Total commitments to all destinations of 1.782 billion bushels compare to 772 million bushels as of late October last year and easily remain record high. Based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection, sales would only need to average roughly 10.6 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s 22.6 million bushels/week. While we do not expected to match the year ago sales pace moving forward, given the massive buying by China already, the USDA’s estimate does appear in need of an upward revision in next week’s WASDE report.
U.S. corn sales last week were very strong again at 2.611 MMT (102.8 million bushels), a new marketing year high, beating market expectations of 1.8-2.5 MMT, rising from the previous week’s also-strong 88.3 million bushels and dwarfing year ago sales this week of a mere 19.2 mil bu. The largest sales this week went to Mexico at 1.06 MMT, which were largely already known in the daily sales announcement last week of 892k tonnes old crop/541k tonnes new crop, but there were also new sales to China of 214k tonnes which were not in daily announcements and bring their total purchases so far to 10.8 MMT. Total commitments are now at 1.307 billion bushels vs 468 million at this time last year, leaving sales needing to average only 22.7 million bushels/week for the rest of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.9 million/week average from this point forward. We anticipate USDA raising their export projection in next week’s WASDE report.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 597k tonnes (21.9 mil bu) were within market expectations of 200-700k tonnes and while they slipped from the previous week’s strong 27.3 mil bu, they were still the 2nd largest of the last 10 weeks. Over the last six weeks, wheat sales averaged 20.1 mil bu/week vs 14.5 million/week during the same period last year. Total commitments of 616 million bushels are now up 12% from last year’s 549 million, while the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection reflects expectations for a minor 1% increase from last year. Wheat sales would need to average roughly 12.6 million bushels/week during Nov-May in order to reach to the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 14.7 million/week average from this point forward. We feel USDA may tick their export projection higher in next week’s update.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week were strong at 331k tonnes, towards the upper end of market expectations of 175-400k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 199k tonnes and were the highest of the first five weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. While still very in the new year, total commitments of 4.472 MMT are up 7% from last year vs USDA currently estimating 2020/21 SBM exports down 3% from a year ago. Soybean oil sales this week were limited again at 6.8k tonnes vs market expectations of 5-30k tonnes as the 2020/21 sales program gets off to a bit of slow start. Four of the first five weeks’ sales have been less than 7k tonnes. Total commitments of 228k tonnes are down 4% from last year, while USDA is currently estimating SBO exports to decline 7% from a year ago.
