-Soybean exports within expectations
-Corn exports at lower end of expectations
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 10/29/20, were 2.083 MMT (76.5 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.5-2.5 MMT (51.5-91.9 million bushels), but down from the previous week’s massive 2.819 MMT (103.6 mil bu) and were the lowest in four weeks. Nonetheless, soybean exports continue at an extremely impressive pace, sharply above year ago exports this week of 1.484 MMT (54.5 mil bu), with cumulative exports now at 609 million bushels, up 73% from 351 million a year ago. As is very likely to be the case for weeks/months to come, China easily led the way with exports this week of nearly 1.5 MMT. Based on the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 34.9 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year vs last year’s 28.7 million/week average from this point forward. For reference, in 2016/17, the year of record soybean exports to China of 36.1 MMT, Nov-Aug soybean shipments averaged 35.5 million bushels/week and were nearly identical again in 2017/18, averaging 35.4 million/week during the period. Cumulative exports to all destinations in 2016/17 in late October were almost identical to this year’s, as well, at 600 million bushels.
U.S. corn exports last week were 722k tonnes (28.4 million bushel), at the lower end of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT (23.6-43.3 million bushels), as soybeans continue to take the lion’s share of export capacity for the time being. Corn exports were up only slightly from the previous week’s marketing year low 681k tonnes (26.8 million bushels), but were significantly larger than last year’s poor exports this week of 284k tonnes (11.2 million bushels). China continues to regularly load a few vessels of corn each week, shipping 330k tonnes last week. Cumulative export inspections of 270 million bushels continue to run sharply above last year’s 148 million, leaving weekly shipments needing to average roughly 44 million bushels during Nov-Aug to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 34.4 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 287k tonnes (10.5 million bushels) were below market expectations of 300-500k tonnes (11.0-18.4 million bushels), were down from the previous week’s 400k tonnes (14.7 million bushels) and were the 2nd lowest through 22 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. After running 10% above year ago levels through September, wheat exports over the last four weeks have slowed considerably, running 25% below last during the period. Cumulative exports of 418 million bushels are holding onto a minor 4.2% year-over-year gain for now. Based on the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection, wheat exports will need to average roughly 17.0 million bushels/week during Nov-May, nearly identical to last year’s 17.2 million/week.
