-Ukraine corn crop ideas continue to shrink – prices strong
-USDA reports modest soybean/SBM sales
-South American/Russian rains weigh on grains overnight
-Funds widespread net buyers in grains last week
 Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA see this year’s corn crop at 30.0 MMT vs 35.9 MMT last year, as private estimates continue to widely run well below the USDA’s last official estimate of 36.5 MMT. APK-Inform said Ukrainian corn export values shot higher by $20/tonne over the last week, now at $233-$237/tonne fob at Black Sea port locations. Harvest of the corn crop is 52% complete, with them noting many estimates within the country have fallen to 26-30 MMT as harvest progresses. USDA last estimated Ukraine corn exports this year at 30.5 MMT vs 29.2 MMT last year, but with the crop widely expected to be 5-10 MMT below year ago levels, obviously a reduction from USDA should be forthcoming. Ukraine’s econ ministry left their official estimate of the crop unchanged at 33.0 MMT, with exports estimated at 26.0 MMT, for now. Ukraine wheat prices continue to move higher, as well, rising another $7/tonne last week to $255-$258/tonne fob for 12.5% protein at Black Sea ports.
ï‚· Sovecon said winter wheat conditions continue to improve as additional rains were seen over the last week, while temperatures remain above average, extending the fall germination/growing season. Winter grain planting is 94% complete.
ï‚· USDA reported the sales of 121k tonnes of soybeans to unknown and 135k tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines this
morning.
 U.S. corn harvest is expected to be around 75% complete in this afternoon’s update vs 60% last week and average around 55%. Soybean harvest is expected around 90% complete vs 75% last week and around 75% average. The first winter wheat crop condition ratings will be issued this afternoon. Last year’s initial rating was 56% good/excellent, while the average over the last five years was 53% g/e.
ï‚· Pakistan tendered for 320k tonnes of optional-origin wheat for arrival by Jan 31. Offers are due by November 3. They last
bought wheat on October 16 with 340k tonnes priced at $284/tonne c&f, with 330k tonnes also purchased on October 7 at
$278.50/tonne c&f. Pakistan is considering raising the mandate for state-sourced wheat purchases to 1.8 MMT from current
plans of 1.5 MMT, all of which must arrive by the end of February, prior to the harvest of the new crop. Pakistan has been selfsufficient in wheat production over the previous five years and has not imported more than 750k tonnes of wheat annually over the last 10 years.
ï‚· Syria tendered for 200k tonnes of Black Sea-origin wheat with offers due by Wednesday.
 Friday’s CFTC COT data for the week ended 10/20/20 showed fund large-scale net buyers of 48.0k contracts in corn, pushing
their net long up to 218.8k contracts. However, that remains well short of the 429.2k contract record. Funds were net buyers of 5.4k contracts in soybeans (net long 231.9k/253.9k record), 11.1k CBOT wheat (net long 49.7k/80.8k record), 5.9k KCBT wheat (net long 38.1k/73.1k record), 6.3k MPLS wheat (net long 4.5k/18.6k record) and 4.6k SBM (net long 81.6k/133.5k record). Funds were marginal net sellers in SBO of 0.2k contracts and are net long 82.0k (126.5k record).
Weather
Rains of .50-1â€+ fell across most of the Brazilian growing regions over the weekend, with the exception being most of Parana,
Santa Catarina and northern RGDS. Argentina saw widespread 95% coverage of .50-1â€. Brazilian growing area north of Parana are expected to see .75-1.5†with 95% coverage during the week, with some 1.5â€+ totals likely across MGDS, Goias and Minas Gerais. Totals from Parana south also look good this week at .50-1.5†range, but with slightly less coverage around 75%. The 6-10 day sees rains of .75-1.5â€+ to fall in most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Goias, with things mainly dry elsewhere. Argentina is expected to see .30-.80†across the southern ½ of Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios in the next 5 days and then be dry everywhere in the 6-10 day period.