-Soybean exports continue very strong – at top end of expectations
-Corn exports solid – at top end of expectations
-Wheat exports lower than expected – marketing year low
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 10/15/20, were very strong again at 2.174 MMT (79.9 million bushels), at the extreme top end of market expectations of 1.2-2.2 MMT (44.1-80.8 million bushels) and were sharply above year ago same-week exports of 1.331 MMT (48.9 million bushels). Moreover, last week’s exports were revised solidly higher to 88.1 million bushels from the initial reporting of 79.3 million. As will very likely be the case for the next several months at least, China dominated this week’s shipping activity with 1.7 MMT loaded for export. Cumulative export inspections of 423 million bushels are up 77% from last year’s 239 million bushels, now 7 weeks into the 2020/21 marketing year, leaving exports from this point forward needing to average roughly 37.5 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.9 million bushel/week average from mid-October through the end of August.
U.S. corn exports last week were 911k tonnes (35.9 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 650-900k tonnes (25.6-35.4 million bushels), ticking up from the previous week’s 839k tonnes (33.0 million bushels) and were the 2nd highest of the first 7 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. Year ago exports this week were 581k tonnes (22.9 million bushels). This week’s activity included 360k tonnes shipped to China. Cumulative export inspections of 215 million bushels are up 77% from last year’s 122 million through mid-October, leaving exports needing to average roughly 43.4 million bushels/week through the end of next August to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 33.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week slowed notably from the consistent pace of late, dropping to a marketing year low 240k tonnes (8.8 million bushels) after the previous 9 weeks’ exports ranged from 18.2-25.7 million bushels/week. Market expectations were 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 million bushels). Year ago exports this week were a 10-week high at 581k tonnes (21.3 mil bu), resulting in a pullback of cumulative export inspections relative to last year, now at 392 million bushels vs 370 million a year ago, reflecting a 6% increase after consistently running 8-10% above last year in recent weeks. The USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection reflects a mere 1% increase from last year and will require exports to average roughly 16.7 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 17.1 million/week average from this point forward.
