-NOPA crush data tomorrow – record-tying Sept soybean crush expected
-China corn futures hit record high
-USDA reports corn/soybean sales to China
-Indonesian biodiesel consumption disappointing
-Brazilian soybean planting delays building – rain forecast importance increasing
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush data will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of September soybean crush by NOPA members is 160.8 million bushels (155.2-167.0 million range of ideas), down from 165.1 million in August, but solidly above last year’s 152.6 million bushels and would match the record for the month set in 2018. End September soybean oil stocks among NOPA members are estimated at 1.412 billion pounds (1.250-1.525 billion range), down from 1.519 billion pounds in August, slightly below last year’s 1.442 billion and would be the lowest for the month in
three years. Over the last four months, U.S.-total soybean oil stocks have averaged 29.5% larger than NOPA-member stocks. A similar deviation to the average trade estimate would imply total stocks of 1.829 billion pounds, which would be solidly above the USDA’s current 2019/20 ending stocks estimate (September stocks) of 1.740 billion pounds. If the USDA’s 2019/20 soybean oil ending stocks estimate is mostly right and the 29.5% difference between NOPA stocks and total stocks holds, end September NOPA stocks would be implied around 1.344 billion pounds.
 While the daily gains were minor, China’s Dalian corn futures hit an all-time record high overnight, with benchmark January futures settling at 2566 yuan/tonne ($382/tonne; $9.70/bushel). If there’s any question about the potential for additional large-scale Chinese corn purchases, a quick look at their domestic prices instantly puts that to rest.
 On that note, USDA reported the sale of 420k tonnes of corn to China this morning, as well as 264k tonnes of soybeans (also China), for 2020/21 delivery. This puts China’s official corn purchases on the books at 10.4 MMT and soybeans at 22.4 MMT.
 U.S. corn harvest advanced to 41% complete (39% expected) from 25% last week and is well ahead of average of 32%, while soybean harvest jumped to 61% (59% expected) from 38% last week and is sharply ahead of average of 42%. Winter wheat planting is 685 complete vs 61% average. For full details of yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress update, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41763.
ï‚· Brazilian soybean planting delays are quickly mounting with Parana only 10% planted vs 28% average, Mato Grosso 3% vs 14% average and MGDS still yet to start vs 12% average. For more details, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41764.
 Indonesian domestic biodiesel consumption during Jan-Sept totaled 6.17 million kiloliters (1.63 billion gallons) according to the country’s energy ministry. A continued pace through the end of the year would imply 2020 total usage at 8.23 million kl (2.173 bil gal), which would be notably short of the government’s annual target of 9.6 million kl (2.54 bil gal). The weaker-than-expected biodiesel consumption data results in the potential for higher than expected stocks, which weighed on Malaysian palm oil futures overnight, prompting the first price setback in eight sessions.
 France officially lowered their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 12.67 MMT from 13.27 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 12.04 MMT. With the rest of the 2020/21 balance sheet left unchanged this month, they now see ending stocks at 2.194 MMT, down sharply from previous expectations for a notable rebound to 3.091 MMT from last year’s 2.005 MMT. They further slightly lowered the soft wheat crop estimate to 29.18 MMT from 29.48 MMT previously and is down sharply from last year’s monstrous 39.55 MMT. Exports to non-EU countries are estimated at 6.423 MMT (6.443 MMT last
month/7.427 MMT last year), with 2020/21 ending stocks estimated at 2.62 MMT vs 2.93 MMT last month and 3.02 MMT last year.
ï‚· It is believed Algeria bought around 510k tonnes of milling wheat for Nov shipment following their recent tender, with prices averaging roughly $263.50/tonne c&f. Despite import specs recently being changed to allow Russian and Ukrainian wheat to participate, traders believe their offers were too high, leaving Baltic Sea region sources the likely winners, as well as some German and French wheat potentially, as well.
ï‚· South Korea bought 125k tonnes of South American corn overnight, with half for Nov-Dec shipment priced at around $248/tonne c&f and half for DecJan shipment at around $244/tonne c&f.
ï‚· Reminder: EIA ethanol data will be out tomorrow and Export Sales on Friday.
Weather
Brazilian rains so far have been disappointing and have not been enough to materially improve near term planting prospects. Improved rains continue to be seen in the forecast, but with planting delays mounting, each forecasted event becomes more important. In Brazil, rains of .20-.60†fell across around 40% of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with a pocket of .25-.75â€+ in southeast MGDS and NW Parana, with mainly dry conditions in the rest of Brazil and all Argentine growing regions yesterday. Brazil is forecast to see tropical, hit and miss, rains occur over the next 5 days, resulting in totals of .40-1â€+ in all
but the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, where things will be mainly dry. The 6-10 day sees fairly widespread rains of .35-1†to fall with some areas of 1â€+ occurring as well. Coverage looks to be around 80%. The Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .30-.80†fall in Corrientes and the southern ½ of Buenos Aries in the next 5 days, with things dry in the rest of their growing regions. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .75-1.5â€+ to fall with coverage of around 85-90%.