-Soybean exports at top end of expectations
-Corn exports marginally below range of expectations
-Wheat exports as expected
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 10/08/20, were very strong at 2.157 MMT (79.3 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 1.2-2.2 MMT (44.1-80.8 million bushels), up from the previous week’s strong 2.005 MMT (73.7 mil bu), the highest of the 2020/21 marketing year so far and dwarfing last year’s same-week exports of 956k tonnes (35.1 mil bu). For comparison basis, though, this week’s exports were still below the two highest same-week exports on record of 94.2 million bushels (2016/17) and 87.3 million bushels (2015/16). As would be expected, the vast majority of soybean exports went to China at 1.627 MMT. Through six weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year, cumulative soybean exports of 334 million bushels compare to 190 million at this time last year, leaving shipments through the end of August needing to average roughly 38.6 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 30.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn exports last week were a bit disappointing at 632k tonnes (24.9 million bushels), slightly below the range of market ideas of 650-900k tonnes (25.6-35.4 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 884k tonnes (34.8 mil bu) and were the lowest of the first six weeks of 2020/21. Given the massive soybean export loadings, though, it’s not surprising to see corn exports a bit constrained for the time being. Year ago exports this week were 481k tonnes (18.9 mil bu). This week’s activity included a 66k tonne shipment to China. Cumulative exports of 170 million bushels are well above last year’s 99 million as of early October, leaving exports through the end of August needing to average roughly 43.4 million bushels/week vs last year’s 33.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports dipped a bit last week to 514k tonnes (18.9 mil bu) from the previous two weeks’ 24.9 million and 21.6 million bushels, but were still slightly better than last year’s 497k tonnes (18.3 mil bu) and were within market expectations of 400-650k tonnes (14.7-23.9 mil bu). Through 19 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year, cumulative exports of 384 million bushels are up 10% from last year’s 349 million, continuing to run ahead of the USDA’s 975 million bushel annual export projection reflecting expectations for a minor 1% increase in exports from last year. We estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 16.5 million bushels/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s estimate vs last year’s 17.2 million bushel/week average from this point forward.
