-Soybean exports within expectations
-Corn exports at top end of expectations
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 9/10/20, were 1.284 MMT (47.2 million bushels), seasonally solid and within market expectations of 800k-1.5 MMT (29.4-55.1 million bushels) in the first full week of the 2020/21 marketing year. Shipments to China last week accounted for 832k tonnes of the total. With the marketing year just getting underway, cumulative export inspections of 68.0 million bushels compare to 45.6 million at this time last year. In order for the USDA’s 2.125 billion bushel export projection to be reached, U.S. soybean exports will need to average roughly 39.3 million bushels/week through the end of August vs last year’s 30.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn exports last week were 879k tonnes (34.6 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 500-900k tonnes (19.7-35.4 million bushels), essentially unchanged from the previous week’s 888k tonnes (35.0 mil bu) and included 211k tonnes to China. Through 10 days of 2020/21, cumulative export inspections of 45 million bushels compares to 35 million last year. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 42.8 million bushels/week throughout 2020/21 vs last year’s 31.9 million bushels/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 637k tonnes (23.4 million bushels) were within market expectations of 450-700k tonnes (16.5-25.7 mil bu), down slightly from the previous week’s marketing year high 699k tonnes (25.7 mil bu), but above last year’s same-week exports of 518k tonnes (19.0 mil bu). Through the first 15 weeks of 2020/21, wheat exports have averaged 20.1 million bushels/week, easily keeping pace with the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection so far in which shipments will need to average roughly 17.0 million bushels/week through next May. Wheat exports from this point forward last year averaged 17.3 million bushels/week.
