-Brazil raises soybean/corn crop estimates
-African swine fever confirmed in Germany – South Korea bans imports
-Brazilian Sept corn export ideas raised solidly
-CPC says La Nina in place – expected to remain through winter months
-Russian wheat crop ideas continue to move higher
-USDA reports more soybeans sold to China
-Malaysian palm oil stocks modestly lower than expected
The EIA’s weekly ethanol data will be out later this morning, while Export Sales will be out on Friday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis for tomorrow’s USDA reports can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41334.
 CONAB solidly raised their estimate of this year’s (already harvested) Brazilian soybean crop to 124.8 MMT from 120.9 MMT previously, putting it more in line with most ideas, as well as the USDA’s latest estimate of 126.0 MMT. They see current marketing year soybean exports at 82.0 MMT, slightly above USDA’s 81.0 MMT estimate and up sharply from last year’s 73.4 MMT (USDA). They slightly bumped the corn crop up to 102.5 MMT from 102.1 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 100.0 MMT, while this year’s estimated corn exports were left unchanged from last month at 34.5 MMT, which would be down solidly from last year’s 41.1 MMT. USDA currently sees this year’s corn crop at 101.0 MMT and exports at 34.0 MMT. CONAB left their estimate of this year’s wheat imports unchanged at 6.7 MMT, which would be in line with last year’s 6.676 MMT.
 A confirmed case of African swine fever has been identified in a dead wild boar in the eastern Germany state of Brandenburg, inducing a 15 km quarantine zone around the location. Upon the finding, South Korea banned pork imports from Germany effective immediately in what may very well be the first of many. Germany is the EU’s largest hog/pork producer.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end August palm oil stocks were 1.699 MMT, moderately below average expectations of 1.790 MMT and essentially unchanged from July stocks of 1.698 MMT. Year ago August stocks were 2.241 MMT. August palm oil production of 1.863 MMT was slightly above the average estimate of 1.844 MMT and up from 1.807 MMT in July and 1.822 MMT last year, with August exports of 1.582 MMT slightly above average expectations of 1.533 MMT, but down from 1.783 MMT in July and 1.736 MMT last year. Palm oil futures were near unchanged overnight.
ï‚· Brazilian exporter association Anec considerably raised their estimate of Brazilian corn exports in September to 5.7 MMT from 4.78 MMT estimated just a week ago and compares to 6.48 MMT exported in August and 6.44 MMT last year. They bumped their estimate of September soybean exports up to 4.3 MMT from 4.19 MMT previously and compares to 6.2 MMT in August and 4.6 MMT last year.
 The Rosario Grains Exchange sees next year’s Argentine soybean crop around 50 MMT, with planted area expected to increase 0.6% to 17.3 million hectares (42.7 million acres). Their estimate reflects an expected minor decline from this year’s exchange-estimated 50.7 MMT, while USDA last estimated this year’s crop at 49.7 MMT. USDA is more optimistic on the coming year’s Argentine crop at 53.5 MMT. The exchange honed their estimate of this year’s Argentine wheat crop to 18 MMT vs the previous range of expectations of 18-19 MMT (USDA 20.5 MMT/19.7 MMT last year), as ongoing dryness and occasional frosts detrimentally impact yield prospects. Their early ideas on next year’s corn crop of 48 MMT are modestly below USDA’s
50.0 MMT (50 MMT last year as well).
ï‚· The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said La Nina conditions are currently present and are expected to continue through the North American winter with a 75% likelihood.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 195k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
 Sovecon further raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 83.3 MMT from 82.6 MMT previously as yields in the Siberian region are proving better than expected. USDA last estimated the Russian crop at 78.0 MMT and last year’s crop at 73.6 MMT. Russian production estimates include the Crimean region, which is typically around 1 MMT, while USDA does not as they include the region in Ukraine.
ï‚· Brazil is expected to extend the tariff-free ethanol import program for three months after allowing it to expire on September 1. This will allow time to begin negotiations with the U.S. over tariffs assessed on Brazilian sugar imports and the handling of U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil moving forward.
 SAGO, Saudi Arabia’s state grain buyer, tendered for 715k tonnes of wheat, with 655k tonnes of 12.5% protein hard milling wheat sought and 60k tonnes of 11% protein soft milling wheat. Offers are due by Friday, with results expected Monday.
 The Czech Republic bumped their estimate of this year’s wheat crop up to 4.92 MMT from 4.71 MMT previously and is in line with last year’s 4.81 MMT, as well as the most-recent 5-year average of 4.9 MMT.
Weather
Rains of .25-.80â€+ fell across the southern ½ of MN, most of IA, the northwest ¼ of MO, into WI and the NW ¾ of MI over the last 24 hours. Rains with the current system will be finishing up in the next 12-18 hours, bringing totals of .20-.60†to western and north central MI, as well as the southern ¼ of IA. A few spotty showers will bring totals of less than .25†to the rest of IA, MO and northern 1/3 of IL. An area of low pressure then looks to bring rains of .25-.75â€, with some isolated heavier amounts to most of MN, IA and MO, as well as most of WI and far NW IL. Totals in the rest of the Midwest look to be generally less than .30â€. Temps will run below average in the NW ½ of the Midwest and above average in the SE for the rest of this week. The cold air threats in the NW Midwest will be over after this morning.