-Chinese soybean buying continues
-Australia sharply raises wheat crop estimate
-Funds back to long corn for the first time since Aug 2019
-Ukraine corn crop ideas continue to move lower
-Rains finally seen across corn belt
-USDA reports Friday – trade estimate summary included
Due to Monday’s holiday, this week’s regular USDA and EIA reports will be delayed one day from their usual release day. Accordingly, Export Inspections and Crop Progress will be out today, EIA ethanol data on Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. The CFTC’s COT data will still be released on Friday, though. The USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Friday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41334. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. U.S. corn and soybean conditions are expected to decline 1-3% in this afternoon’s update. This week’s rains should, hopefully, help to finalize stabilize conditions after that, though.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 664k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning for 2020/21 delivery, as well as 102k tonnes of corn to unknown.
 ABARES further raised their estimate of this year’s Australian wheat crop, now seen at 28.91 MMT vs 26.67 MMT previously and nearly doubling last year’s disastrous crop of 15.1 MMT. ABARES’ estimate is now sharply above USDA’s last reflection of the crop at 26.0 MMT. They raised the canola crop estimate to 3.4 MMT from 3.2 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 2.3 MMT
 Preliminary trade data showed China’s soybean imports in August were 9.60 MMT, down modestly from 10.09 MMT in July, but comparable to last year’s 9.48 MMT. 2019/20 marketing year to date (Oct-Aug) imports of 88.7 MMT compares to 74.4 MMT last year during the same period, while 2020 calendar year to date imports of 64.7 MMT compares to 49.0 MMT last year. China imported a total of 976k tonnes of vegoils in August vs 956k tonnes in July and 907k tonnes last year. Calendar year to date vegoil imports of 5.97 MMT are up 2.6% from last year.
 A wire service poll of Brazilian ag industry participants reflected average expectations for the coming 2020/21 Brazilian soybean crop to rise to 131.7 MMT from this year’s CONAB-estimated crop of 124.5 MMT, while USDA was last at 131.0 MMT and CONAB at 133.5 MMT. Brazilian farmers are estimated to be almost 50% sold on the coming year’s soybean crop.
 Ukraine’s grain exports since the start of the 2020/21 marketing year July 1 are down nearly 18% from last year at 8.29 MMT. Specifically, wheat exports so far of 5.4 MMT compare to 5.9 MMT in early September last year, while corn exports have been only 604k tonnes vs 1.9 MMT a year ago.
 ProAgro lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s corn crop to 34.0 MMT from 38.9 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 39.5 MMT and last year’s 35.9 MMT (USDA). Accordingly, they lowered their estimate of this year’s corn exports to 29.8 MMT from 33.3 MMT previously (USDA 33.5 MMT/29.3 MMT last year), while wheat exports are estimated at 17.5 MMT, down from 18.4 MMT previously (USDA 18.0 MMT/21.1 MMT last year).
 Strategie Grains slightly raised their estimate of the EU rapeseed crop to 17.09 MMT from 16.79 MMT previously and compares to last year’s also-poor crop of 17.32 MMT (20.3 MMT in 2018/19).
 Kazakhstan said they do not plan on putting any restrictions on this year’s grain exports, which are expected to be around 8.0 MMT for 2020/21, comparable to year ago levels.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 9/01/20 showed funds huge net buyers in corn of 80.1k contracts, moving them to a small net long of 18.7k contracts and the first time funds have been long corn since August 2019. Funds were also strong net buyers in soybeans of 53.3k contracts, extending their net long to 162.6k, the largest since May 2018, and were net buyers of 13.9k contracts in soybean oil (net long 81.6k largest since January) and net buyers of 12.3k soybean meal (net long 15.9k). Funds were also net buyers in all three wheat markets with 31.0k contracts in CBOT (net long 32.5k), 24.3k KCBT (net long 3.2k) and 7.3k MPLS (net short 10.1k).
Weather
Over the last 72 hours, rains of .50-1.5â€+ fell across the southern 1/3 of MN, the NE 1/3 of IA, far SW WI and into the northern 1/3 of IL and northern ½ of IN and OH, with totals of .20-.75†in most of MI and southern ½ of IA. Over the next five days, an additional .50-1.25â€+ is expected for areas NW of a line from St Louis to Cleveland, while SE of the line sees .30-.80â€. There are no cold air threats through the 16-day outlook period.