-Corn sales at very top end of large market expectations
-Soybean sales at very top end of large market expectations
-Wheat sales at very top end of market expectations
-SBM sales at top end of expectations, SBO sales minimal
NOTE: This week’s data reflected the last full week of the 2019/20 marketing years for corn and soybeans.
U.S. new crop corn sales, for the week ended 8/27/20, were very strong at 2.389 MMT (94.1 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 1.5-2.5 MMT and included sales to China of 1.155 MMT and 569k tonnes to unknown. There were also sales of 72k tonnes of old crop corn to China this week, as well. This week’s activity brought China 2020/21 commitments through 8/27/20 to 7.54 MMT, while current total purchases are above 9.0 MMT given the daily sales announcements since this week’s reporting day. Total commitments to all destinations for 20/21 of 621 million bushels compares to 235 million at this time last year and are all-time record large as of the last week of the old crop marketing year. Old crop corn sales were 96k tonnes (3.8 mil bu) vs expectations of net cancellations of 50k to +100k tonnes, and brought 2019/20 total commitments to 1.755 billion bushels vs 1.966 billion last year. Based on this week’s Export Inspections data, it appears old crop exports may fall 10-15 million bushels below the USDA’s 1.795 billion bushel estimate.
U.S. new crop soybean sales were 1.763 MMT (64.8 mil bu), at the very top end of market expectations of 1.0-1.8 MMT, and included 1.0 MMT in reported sales to China, as well as 526k tonnes to unknown. China’s official purchases for 2020/21 through 8/27/20 stood at 13.5 MMT vs total purchases for 2019/20 of 17.0 MMT, but are likely in the 17-18 MMT when taking into account sales reflected as unknown and announced sales since 8/27. Total commitments to all destinations for 2020/21 of 889 million bushels compare to 235 million at this time last year and are an all-time record for the last full week of the old crop marketing year. Old crop sales were 88k tonnes vs expectations of 0-100k tonnes and brought 2019/20 total commitments to 1.746 billion bushels vs 1.792 billion last year. Based on this week’s Export Inspections data, 2019/20 exports appear likely to exceed the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushel export projection by 25-35 million bushels.
U.S. wheat sales last week were solid, as well, at 585k tonnes (21.5 mil bu), at the top end of expectations of 350-600k tonnes and brought total commitments to 458 million bushels vs 419 million at this time last year. Wheat sales over the last eight weeks averaged 22.5 mil bu/week vs 18.0 million/week during the same period last year. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 13.7 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 975 mil bu export projection vs 14.7 million/week from this point forward last year. We feel USDA could bump their export projection higher in the September 11 WASDE report.
Old crop soybean meal sales were 114k tonnes vs expectations of 25-125k, while new crop sales of 229k tonnes were towards the top of expectations of 50-250k tonnes, as well. Old crop total commitments are now up 1% from last year, and gaining, vs USDA projecting a 1.6% increase in exports for 2019/20 with four full weeks remaining in the marketing year. New crop total commitments of 1.54 MMT compare to 1.62 MMT at this time last year. Soybean oil sales were minimal this week at 4.9k tonnes for old crop and 3.0k for new crop, with old crop sales over the last four weeks TOTALING only 0.9k tonnes given the net cancellations at times. It appears 2019/20 exports may fall a bit short of the USDA’s projection with total commitments up 42.8% from last year vs USDA projecting a 46.9% increase in exports for the year, but it will all come down to the actual shipment pace over the last few weeks of the year as there are enough unshipped sales on the books to allow their projection to be reached.
