-Corn exports sharply lower than expected, 32-week low in final week of 19/20
-Soybean exports as expected, strong 19/20 finish supports exports slightly above USDA
-Wheat exports as expected
In the final full week of the 2019/20 marketing year, U.S. corn exports slumped to just 402k tonnes (15.8 million bushels) from 892k tonnes (35.1 mil bu) the week prior, the previous 6-week average of 39.4 mil bu/week, were the lowest in 32 weeks and were well below market expectations of 800k-1.1 MMT (31.5-43.3 million bushels). Given the poor exports last week, 2019/20 annual exports appear likely to fall a bit short of the USDA’s 1.795 billion bushel export projection. Even with a rebound in exports next week, of which 4 days will be attributed to the old crop marketing year, we pencil 2019/20 exports at roughly 1.780 billion bushels, based on cumulative Export Inspections of 1.640 billion bushels (1.857 billion last year) and estimated marketing year total difference between official Census Bureau exports and Inspections data of 120 million bushels.
On the other hand, soybean exports finished 2019/20 strongly with shipments of 805k tonnes (29.6 million bushels), and while down from the previous week’s 1.223 MMT (44.9 mil bu), were still in line with the previous 4-week average of 32.1 million bushels and market expectations of 650k-1.0 MMT (23.9-36.7 mil bu). Based on cumulative Export Inspections of 1.585 billion bushels (1.681 bil last year), estimated marketing year Census Bureau exports 80 million bushels larger the Inspections and final split week exports, we see 2019/20 soybean exports at roughly 1.680 billion bushels vs USDA last at 1.650 billion. This week’s activity included 465k tonnes shipped to China, leaving roughly 1.2 MMT in old crop purchases still on the books and likely to be largely rolled into 2020/21.
U.S. wheat exports last week were respectable at 516k tonnes (19.0 million bushels), which were within market expectations of 400-700k tonnes (14.7-25.7 mil bu), right in line with previous 6-weeks’ average exports of 19.3 mil bu and comparable to last year’s same week exports of 20.5 mil bu. Through the first 13 weeks of 2020/21, cumulative Export Inspections of 248 million bushels are nearly identical to last year’s 242 million, supporting the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection. We estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 17.4 million bushels/week through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 17.1 million/week average from this point forward.