-CONAB revises Brazilian soybean production over past 7 years
-USDA reports more soybean sales to China
-Brazilian Aug soybean/corn export ideas ticked lower
-First cold temp threat shows up on extended maps
 In recent months, CONAB has said they are re-evaluating previous years’ soybean production numbers given the discrepancies between known demand and CONAB’s crop estimates. These revisions are expected to be detailed in their September 10 monthly report. A statement by CONAB said they re-evaluated soybean production over the last 7 years, with the cumulative revision to all years’ crops over the period being an increase of 14.4 MMT. Specifically, this year’s crop was revised up to 124.46 MMT vs 120.89 MMT reflected in this month’s estimate and is more in line with USDA’s 126.0 MMT estimate. Details on past year’s revisions are expected to be included in next month’s report, along with related supply/demand balance sheet adjustments. CONAB also said they are adding objective field surveys during the growing season to help improve their crop estimates moving forward.
ï‚· A Bloomberg article, citing unnamed Chinese sources, said those sources are expecting China to import 40 MMT of U.S. soybeans in 2020. On a calendar year basis, the largest U.S. soybean exports to China were 36.1 MMT in 2016, with 31.7 MMT in 2017, 8.2 MMT in 2018 and 22.6 MMT in 2019.
 USDA reported 400k tonnes of soybeans sold to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning. Since last week’s Export Sales report reflecting activity through August 13, roughly another 1.3 MMT in sales have been reported specifically to China with nearly 700k tonnes in sales to unknown.
 Brazilian grain exporting association Anec modestly lowered their estimate of Brazilian soybean exports in August to 6.02 MMT from 6.58 MMT previously expected, but would still be above last year’s 5.00 MMT and the 2nd highest for the month on record. If accurate, marketing year to date (Feb-Aug) exports of 76.9 MMT would compare to last year’s 54.1 MMT. Similarly, they lowered ideas on August corn exports to 6.79 MMT from 7.25 MMT previously, which would be up from 4.15 MMT in July, but slightly below last year’s record for the month of 7.32 MMT. Mar-Aug marketing year to date corn exports of 11.8 MMT compare to 16.6 MMT last year.
 French ag consultant Agritel maintained their estimate of the country’s soft wheat crop at 29.2 MMT, which is down sharply from last year’s 39.5 MMT, leaving 2020/21 French wheat exports outside the EU estimated at just 6.3 MMT vs last year’s record 13.5 MMT. Exports to Algeria are expected to drop sharply to 2.6 MMT from last year’s 5.6 MMT given the lack of exportable supplies.
ï‚· Turkey provisionally bought 390k tonnes of red milling wheat (12.5-13.5% protein) following their latest tender at prices ranging from $209.00-$228.00/tonne c&f. Egypt ended up buying 530k tonnes of Russian wheat in their latest tender, paying $227.17-$228.35/tonne c&f ($213.00-$213.33 fob) for Oct 11-31 shipment period.
Weather
Rains of .35-1â€+ fell across eastern WI, extreme NE IL and far SW MI yesterday, with conditions mainly dry across the rest of the belt. Limited rains (generally less than .35â€) still look to fall in most of IA, the southern ¼ of MN and into central IL, with totals over the next 5 days of .40-1†in northern IL, as well as most other areas to the east of the MS River. To the west of the river, totals still look to be in the .25-.85†in central MN and NW MO. A solid rain event is still indicated for the 6-10 day period with at least .75-1.25†forecast to fall in just about all of the Midwest, with some 1.25â€+ totals also possible, especially in MO. The 11-16 day period continues to see a NW flow aloft to produce average to a bit less than average rainfall and below average temps to the Midwest. The GFS does indicate the potential for temps as cold as 34 degrees in western MN, northwest IA and the eastern Dakotas the morning of Sept. 9th. Temps will run above average in most of the region for the rest of this week and into the weekend and then will fall to below average as we work through the first half of next week and remain there for the rest of the week.