-July NOPA soybean crush slightly higher than expected
-July NOPA soybean oil stocks lower than expected
NOPA reported July soybean crush by its member was 172.8 million bushels, slightly above the average trade estimate of 172.0 million and was up from 167.3 million bushels in June, while reflecting a new record for the month in surpassing last year’s previous record 168.1 million bushels. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA-member crush and total U.S. crush, July total crush would be implied at roughly 183.2 million bushels, up 2.1% from last year’s 179.5 million and would put 2019/20 marketing year to date (Sept-July) crush at 1.988 billion bushels vs 1.914 billion bushels last year, requiring August crush to be 172 million bushels vs last year’s 178 million in order to reach the USDA’s 2.160 billion bushel marketing year total crush estimate. At this point, it would appear 2019/20 crush is likely to exceed the USDA’s estimate by at least 5 million bushels.
NOPA reported its members produced 2.005 billion pounds of soybean oil in July vs 1.933 billion in June and 1.971 billion pounds last year, with the average yield ticking up to 11.60 pounds/bushel from 11.56 in June, but still solidly below last year’s 11.73.
NOPA reported end July soybean oil stocks held by its members declined to 1.619 billion pounds from 1.778 billion in June and were solidly below average market expectations of 1.698 billion pounds. However, July soybean oil stocks were still well above last year’s 1.467 billion pounds and remain right in line with stocks of recent years. Implied monthly soybean oil “off-take” (June stocks + July production – July stocks) of 2.164 billion pounds was up solidly from 2.036 billion in June, as well as last year’s July off-take of 2.039 billion pounds. Moreover, calculated July off-take was the 2nd highest on record, just below May’s 2.188 billion pounds.
NOPA reported its members produced 4.080 million tons vs 3.936 million tons in June and 3.931 million last year, while exporting 876k tons in July vs 835k in June and 879k last year.
