-NOPA crush report Monday – another record expected
-USDA reports modest soybean sale to China again
-Brazil tax-free ethanol import quota to expire at end of Aug
-10 day forecast remains fairly dry
 On Monday, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data for July at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of July NOPA soybean crush is 172.0 million bushels (168.8-180.0 million range of ideas), which would be a new record for the month and up from 167.3 million in June and 168.1 million last year. Over the last five months, U.S. total soybean crush has averaged 6.0% larger than NOPAmember crush. Using that as a reference, the average estimate implies U.S. total crush for the month of 182.3 million bushels, which would be just 1.6% above last year’s 179.5 mil bu after June, May and April crush were up 12.5%, 8.5% and 6.9%, respectively as last year’s July and August crush surged higher. However, it would represent a new record for the month of July. If accurate, August crush would need to be roughly 173 million bushels in order for 2019/20 total crush to reach the USDA’s 2.160 billion bushel estimate, modestly below last year’s record August crush of 178 million. The average estimate of July soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.698 billion pounds (1.618-1.797 billion range), which would be down from 1.778 billion in June, but still solidly above last year’s July stock of 1.467 billion pounds. Over the last 6 years, July NOPA soybean oil stocks ranged from 1.467-1.764 billion pounds, averaging 1.624 billion, with the average estimate of this’s year’s July stocks modestly above average of recent years.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 126k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery this morning.
 India imported 824k tonnes of palm oil in July, a 10-month high and was up sharply from 563k tonnes in June and slightly above year ago July imports of 811k tonnes. July soybean oil imports of 485k tonnes were up solidly from 331k tonnes in June and last year’s 318k tonnes. However, due to sharply-reduced imports earlier in the year, 9-month marketing year to date (Nov-Jul) total vegoil imports are down 11.4% from last year.
 Brazil’s tax-free ethanol import quota of 750 million liters/year (~200 mil gallons) is set to expire on August 31 and there is heavy pressure by the country’s farm and ethanol lobbies to not renew it. The entire quota is used to bring in U.S. ethanol, with imports above the quota subject to a 20% tax. Brazil is the U.S.’ largest buyer of ethanol, with exports to Brazil of 340-500 million gallons annually over the last three years. Through the first 6 months of 2020, U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil were 177 million gallons vs 220 mil last year.
ï‚· Iran ended up buying 130k tonnes of South American soybean meal for Sept-Oct shipment after tendering for 250k tonnes, and passed on all offers in their tender for 250k tonnes of corn.
 French corn crop conditions declined sharply over the last week, falling to 65% good/excellent from 74% g/e the week prior and now only slightly better than last year’s 60% g/e, following a stretch of hot temperatures, which came after a dry July. France’s soft wheat harvest is complete.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 415k tonnes of wheat in their latest tender, all Russian, and priced from $221.98-$223.33/tonne c&f ($206.30-$207.38 fob) for Oct 1-10 shipment.
Weather
Rains of .20-.65†fell across the far southern sections of IL and IN yesterday. A cold front will work through the corn belt today and tomorrow bringing rains .30-.80†to most of the MN growing regions, as well as the western 2/3 of IA. Totals of .25-.75†are seen for the OH River Valley, while the rest of the belt looks to see generally less than .35â€. The 6-10 day outlook is a little mixed, but both models indicate mainly dry weather to occur in the region for most of next week and then by Friday and Saturday, the GFS shows rains of .20-.60†to fall in most of the corn belt, with some .60â€+ totals possible in far SE MN, far NE IA and southern WI. The European sees totals of generally less than .20†for most areas, though. There is more confidence in the GFS at this time.