-Better than expected crop conditions weigh on markets overnight
-Pick up in global demand interest seen on price break
-Egypt tenders for wheat
-China expected to auction rice/wheat to cool corn price strength
-US extended weather outlook non-threatening
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update set the tone for overnight trade with better than expected conditions reported for corn and soybeans. Soybean conditions improved 1% in good/excellent to 69% vs wire service-reported expectations for a 1% decline, while corn conditions held steady at 69% g/e vs expectations also for a 1% decline. Conditions were a mixed bag for both crops across the corn belt, but IL conditions improved solidly for both, while IA declined. With an extended forecast looking less threatening by the day, expectations will most likely begin to shift to steady/improving conditions moving forward. Overall corn conditions remain a bit above the most-recent 5-year average and are the 6th best of the last 16 years for this point, while soybean conditions are the 4th best of the last 26 years. As of Sunday, 59% of the corn was silking vs 29% the previous week and 54% average, while soybeans were 25% setting pods vs 111% a week ago and 21% average.
 Spring wheat conditions held steady last week at 68% g/e, as expected, but continue to struggle a bit, being solidly below the last two years’ crops and in line with 2016 for the 2nd worst of the last eight years. However, conditions are only slightly below those of 2013, 2014 and 2015 over this period.
ï‚· Winter wheat harvest is 74% complete vs 66% last year and 75% average. The SRW harvest is essentially complete, while HRW harvest is complete for the most part expect for NE, which is ahead of average at 79%. White wheat harvest across the PNW is running behind average in its early stages.
 For full details on this week’s Crop Progress update, please see our post on Market Insights at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40845.
ï‚· USDA announced 2020/21 soybean sales of 126k tonnes to China and 180k tonnes to unknown, as well as 208k tonnes of corn (25k old crop/182k tonnes new crop) to unknown this morning.
ï‚· There are ideas China plans to sell rice and wheat from state reserves to feed manufacturers in an attempt to help offset continued rising corn prices, which are the highest since 2015 in some areas. It is believed around 10 MMT of rice will be auctioned in the first round, being offered only to feed makers vs standard grain auctions which are available to all.
ï‚· APK-Inform estimated commercial Ukrainian grain stocks held at large/medium ag companies as of July 1 were 5.53 MMT vs 9.2 MMT at the same time last year. Wheat stocks were estimated at 1.81 MMT, corn 2.03 MMT and barley 1.4 MMT.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for Aug 21-31 shipment. The three lowest offers were all Ukrainian at $224.48-$228.33/tonne c&f, with the lowest Russian offered at $230.92/tonne c&f. In their last purchase on July 14, Egypt bought 114k tonnes of Russian wheat at $226.75/tonne c&f.
ï‚· After tendering for 207k tonnes of corn and 70k tonnes of feed wheat, South Korea bought 65k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $190.93/tonne c&f and 60k tonnes of feed wheat, expected to be Ukrainian, at $232.90/tonne c&f. Shipment periods are expected to be LH Sept/FH Oct.
 Once again, Ethiopia postponed their tender for 400k tonnes of wheat, with offers due by Friday vs Monday’s previous deadline, which was previously delayed from July 10.
ï‚· In other trade news, Philippines tendered for 110k tonnes of feed wheat, while Thailand tendered for 193k tonnes of feed wheat and 98k tonnes of feed barley.
Weather
Rains of .35-.80†were seen yesterday in the western ½ of MN and the SW 1/3rd of IA, with totals of .50-1â€+ in the northern ½ of MO. Most areas east of the MS River were dry. Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will impact areas mainly south of I-80 this week, producing combined totals over the next 5 days in the .50-1†range, with some isolated heavier totals, and coverage of near 100% to the south of I-80. Rains north of I-80 look to be generally less than .40â€, with coverage of around 50%. The exceptions could be sections of MN and possibly into SW WI, where totals of .50-1†are possible as well. The 6-10 day forecast is wetter today with rains now expected to fall in most of the Midwest. Both models made this change, although the European is a bit less generous with the coverage. Totals for the period look to be in the .50-1†range, with areas of 1â€+. The GFS has coverage at around 95%, while the European sees the southern ½ of IL and central IL, as well as most of MI to miss the rains. There’s more confidence in a solution closer to the GFS ideas, but its coverage may be slightly too high. The 11-16 day outlook calls for ridging to break down early and transition into a NW flow aloft allowing for temps to cool down to average to below and also produce close to average rainfall.