-NOPA crush report today – record May crush expected
-USDA reports soybean sales to China
-Malaysian FH June palm oil exports extremely strong
-Funds add to corn net short – approaching record
-Brazil cane crush very strong – heavily favors sugar vs ethanol
Grain markets were a bit lower overnight on a less-threatening U.S. weather outlook (not quite as hot/dry as Friday’s forecast), while wheat harvest advances north. A bit more Chinese soybean buying continues to be seen. Corn and soybean crop conditions are expected to tick higher in this afternoon’s update.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush data will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of May soybean crush by NOPA members is 173.1 million bushels (164.1-177.5 million range of ideas), which would be up slightly from April NOPA crush of 171.8 million bushels, but more importantly, sharply above year ago May crush of 154.8 million bushels and easily a record for the month in surpassing 2018’s 163.6 million bushels. Based on the recent relationship between NOPA crush and U.S. total crush, the average estimate would imply U.S. total crush for the month around 184.5 million bushels vs last year’s 165.4 million and would put marketing year to date crush at 1.633 billion bushels vs 1.577 billion last year, leaving June-August crush needing to run 1.5% below last year in order to not exceed the USDA’s 2.140 billion bushel annual estimate. Last year’s May and June crush rates were well off record levels, allowing for the expected notable year-over-year increase to be
reflected in today’s data for May, but July and August crush last year were records for their respective months. The average estimate of end May soybean oil stocks by NOPA members is 2.068 billion pounds (1.942-2.200 billion range), down slightly from April’s 2.111 billion pounds which were the highest monthly stocks since June 2013, but sharply above year ago May stocks of 1.581 billion pounds.
 USDA reported the sale of 390k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2020/21, new crop, delivery this morning. These sales, along with the announced sales on Friday, bring China’s total reported purchases of 2020/21 soybeans to around 3.1 MMT when added to last week’s Export Sales data. Total purchases are likely somewhat larger than that, though, as not all interim sales between Export Sales reports, are caught in the daily reporting system. There are also ideas at least another 2 cargoes were booked this morning, as well.
ï‚· Brazilian sugarcane processing continues at a torrid pace with 145 MMT of cane crushed in the first two months (April & May) of the 2020/21 marketing year, up more than 12% from last year. The dramatic shift to producing sugar vs ethanol continues, as well, with nearly 46% of crush allocated to sugar so far vs 33% a year ago. Sugar production in April-May combined of 8.0 MMT compares to 4.9 MMT last year, while ethanol production was essentially unchanged at 6.2 MMT with the higher crush pace offsetting the lower ethanol allocation.
 Malaysian palm oil/product exports in the first half of June were estimated at 922k tonnes, nearly double May 1-15 exports of 505k tonnes and compares total May exports of 1.266 MMT and last year’s total June exports of 1.358 MMT.
 Indonesian palm oil-based biodiesel (B30) consumption in 2020 is expected to be around 8.0 million kiloliters (2.1 billion gallons), below the government’s target of 9.6 million kl (2.54 bil gallons) due to coronavirus-impacted demand declines.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia bought 1.08 MMT of barley following their recent tender for 960k tonnes for Aug-Sept arrival periods, with the average price paid at $198.81/tonne c&f.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 6/09/20 (Tuesday) showed funds adding to their net short in corn by 15.0k contracts to 297.3k, nearing the record net short of 322.2k contracts in mid-April 2019. For the week, funds were also net sellers in CBOT wheat of 11.9k contracts (net short 25.4k), 11.4k contracts SBO (net even) and 2.0k contracts SBM (net short 53.0k – record net short is 77.1k). Funds were net buyers of 13.7k contracts in soybeans (net long 20.4k), 5.4k KCBT wheat (net short 18.7k) and 2.7k MPLS wheat (net short 19.2k).
Weather
Conditions will be mainly dry across the corn belt over the next five days, with rains to develop in most of MN and IA by later Thursday into Thursday night. The models differ on totals with this activity with the GFS showing totals of 1-2†in the NW corner of IA and western ½ of MN and totals of .50-1â€+ elsewhere, while the European sees totals of .25-.75†to fall. The 6-10 day period has strongly mixed ideas between the models.
The European sees rains of .65-1†rains to fall, with coverage of around 75%- favoring IA, far NW IL and WI, as well as into the southern 2/3 of IN and OH. The GFS sees rains of .75-1.5†to fall in nearly all of the region. The 11-16 day outlook sees ridging to dominate most of the pattern across the central US, producing above average temps and below average precip in all of the Midwest. Temps will run above average in the far western Midwest for most of this week, with 90s common, with 80s to dominate the rest of the region. Temps by the weekend and first half of next week look to run in the 90s in MO and the southern 2/3 of IL, IN and OH, with 80s and maybe some low 90s elsewhere.