-Ukraine corn crop/exports seen up from last year, wheat down
-USDA reports additional modest soybean sales to unknown
-US weather outlook remains non-threatening
-Export Sales generally uneventful
-China corn auction sees strong interest
ï‚· China sold 3.97 MMT of the 4.0 MMT of corn offered at the first auction of state reserves of the year at an average price of 1795 yuan/tonne ($252/tonne, $6.41/bushel). Last year initial auction saw an average price paid of roughly $237/tonne ($6.02/bu).
 Ukrainian ag consultant ProAgro sees this year’s wheat crop at 26.7 MMT vs 28.3 MMT last year, allowing for exports of 18.0 MMT vs 20.5 MMT this year, while the corn crop is estimated to rise to 37.6 MMT from 35.8 MMT a year ago, resulting in exports increasing to 32.0 MMT in 2020/21 vs 30.5 MMT this year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 120k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, 60k old crop and 60k new crop.
ï‚· Indian palm oil imports in May were only 387k tonnes, down 53% from year ago May imports of 823k tonnes, while soybean oil imports in the month of 187k tonnes compared to 232k last year in May. Total vegoil imports in May of 707k vs 1.18 MMT in May 2019, reflecting the lowest imports for the month of May since 2011. A rebound in vegoil imports is expected as coronavirus-related restrictions are lifted with June imports expected to exceed 900k tonnes and continue rising into July of 1.0 MMT+.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40325 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 638k tonnes (25.1 million bushels), within market expectations of 400-900k tonnes and rebounded modestly from the previous week’s poor sales of 16.8 million bushels, but were still well below average sales over the previous 6-week period of 37.1 million bushels. Most importantly, though, corn sales continue to run well above the roughly 10 million bushel/week average pace we estimate is necessary to reach the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 495k tonnes (18.2 million bushels), at the very bottom of market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT, down from the previous week’s 23.7 million bushels and were the lowest in six weeks.
ï‚· New crop wheat sales of 457k tonnes (16.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-600k tonnes and brought 2020/21 total commitments to 128 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 156 million bushels. This was the last full week of the 2019/20 marketing year with old crop unshipped (outstanding) sales still at 91 million bushels vs 60 million a year ago. With the majority of those old crop sales likely to be rolled forward into 2020/21, total commitments to start the year should be similar to year ago levels.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 559k tonnes were at the top end of market expectations of 200-600k tonnes and were the highest in 19 weeks while also sharply outpacing year ago same-week sales of 111k tonnes. Soybean oil sales of 9.4k tonnes declined from the previous two weeks’ very strong 56.6k and 62.1k tonnes and still beat the mere 1k tonnes/week estimated “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection.
Weather
Rains of .50-1â€, isolated to 1â€+ fell across most of MO, the SE 1/3 of IA, southern WI, the northern 2/3 of IL, central IL and the southern 1/3 of OH yesterday. The front responsible for the rains the past 36 hours has stalled and is breaking apart. It will continue to cause some additional showers and thunderstorms to occur, mainly across MO and the southern ½ of IN and most of OH. Totals in these areas look to be in the .40-1†range. Some showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in southern IA, where .35-.85†is seen. The models have come into pretty good agreement for the 6-10 day period with the tropical system making landfall along the LA coast late Sunday and then tracking north interacting with
a cold front moving in from the NW. The result of this will be for some heavy rains to fall where the two meet. The models see this zone of interaction to be MO, the eastern ¾ of IN, the SE corner of MN, most of WI and IL. The rest of the region looks to see totals of around .40†or less occur, with coverage of around 75%. Conditions look to dry out across the belt for later Wednesday and remain dry through Saturday. The 11-16 day period shows some weak ridging to re-develop and bring above average temps and below average precip to the Midwest for early in the period, with a flattening out by the middle of the period allowing rains and cooler temps to occur. Temps in the next week to ten days look to run above average across the belt for the next 5 days and then cool some to average to a bit below for the 6-10 period.