-NOPA crush report today
-No USDA sales announcements
-Warmer/drier US weather next week
-Ukraine grain exports seen declining in 20/21
-Malaysia cuts palm oil export tax to zero
ï‚· President Trump ramped up the coronavirus/trade deal rhetoric regarding China yesterday saying he has no interest in speaking with President Xi and even saying “We could cut off the whole relationship.â€
 During the session yesterday, IEG Vantage, formerly Informa, put estimated U.S. corn planted area at 94.160 million acres, down 2.8 million from the USDA’s official 96.990 million estimate, with soybean acreage estimated at 85.890 million, up 2.4 million from the USDA’s 83.510 million acre estimate. “Other spring†wheat area was estimated at 12.540 million acres vs USDA’s 12.590 million acres, while they see cotton area at 12.798 million, down solidly from the USDA’s 13.7 million acre estimate.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning. Ideas are China bought 3 cargoes of U.S. soybeans for Oct shipment yesterday.
 APK-Inform said 2020/21 Ukrainian wheat exports could decline to 16.5 MMT from this year’s estimated 20.0 MMT as a result of the expected decline in production. USDA is currently estimating new crop exports at 19.0 MMT vs this year’s estimated 20.5 MMT. They see corn exports possibly ticking lower to 28.0 MMT from this year’s 28.5 MMT. They also expected an overall decline in oilseed exports for the year ahead, with 2020/21 rapeseed exports estimated at 2.7 MMT, down 6.6%, sunflower oil exports at 6.15 MMT, down 1% and soybean exports of 2.38 MMT, down 8%.
 Germany’s official estimates of this year’s crop area showed winter wheat acreage down 7% from last year, with winter rapeseed area up nearly 12% and corn area up nearly 11% from last year.
 Germany’s farm cooperatives association lowered their estimate of the country’s total wheat crop to 22.38 MMT from 23.73 MMT previously and would be down nearly 3% from last year’s 23.1 MMT, while they see the winter rapeseed crop at 3.24 MMT, down slightly from their previous estimate of 3.34 MMT, but up strongly from last year’s historically poor crop of 2.82 MMT.
ï‚· Malaysia lowered the export tax on crude palm oil to zero for the month of June from the 4.5% rate currently in effect.
ï‚· A South Korean feed mill passed on a tender for 55k tonnes of corn for Oct 10 arrival citing offered prices being too high. South Korea did buy 50k tonnes of corn/17k tonnes from South America yesterday for May-June shipment.
ï‚· French winter wheat crop conditions declined 2% in good/excellent over the last week to 55% and compares to 79% g/e at this time last year. Spring and winter barley conditions both also declined by 2% g/e over the week at 62% g/e (89% g/e last year) and 51% g/e (75% g/e last year), respectively. Corn planting is now 90% complete vs 77% last week and 85% last year, with early crop conditions at 87% g/e, down 6% from last week, and compares to 85% g/e a year ago.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report will be released today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of April crush by NOPA members is 170.5 million bushels (163.0-177.0 million range of ideas), which would be down from 181.4 million in March, but would reflect a new record for the month of April, which currently stands at 161.0 million bushels in 2018. Last year’s April NOPA crush was 160.0 million. The average estimate of end April soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 2.031 billion pounds (1.819-2.305 billion range), up from 1.899 billion in March and solidly above year ago April stocks of 1.787 billion pounds.
Weather
Rains of .50-1.5†fell across the northern ½ of MO, the SE ½ of IA and into southern WI, most of MI and the northern 1/3 of IL, IN and OH. The current system will finish up across IL, MI, IN and OH in the next 24 hours, with most totals of .25-.75â€. Another round of rains looks to bring totals of .35-.85â€, with some 1â€+ amounts, to most of the belt starting late Saturday in the west and finishing up in the east Monday. The 6-10 day period looks mostly dry as ridging takes over the upper air pattern. Temps will run below average for a few more days and then warm to average and even a bit above in the west by later in the weekend and remain there through most of next week. The eastern Midwest looks to remain a bit below average through the next 10 days.