-Corn sales remain strong – within expectations
-Soybean sales as expected
-New crop wheat sales at bottom of expectations
-SBM/SBO sales at bottom of expectations
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 5/07/20, were 1.073 MMT (42.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 800k-1.5 MMT and compared to 30.4 million bushels last week and 21.8 million bushels last year, while continuing the stretch of rather impressive sales numbers since early March. Over the last 10 weeks, corn sales have averaged 47.1 million bushels/week vs 25.1 million/week during the same period last year. Total commitments of 1.519 billion bushels are still down nearly 18% from last year’s 1.846 billion, but continually gaining. Based on the USDA’s just-raised 1.775 billion bushel export projection, corn sales will need to average roughly 12.5 million bushels/week through the end of August last year’s 7.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales were decent at 656k tonnes (24.1 million bushels), meeting market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT and holding steady from the previous week’s 24.0 million bushels, while outpacing last year’s same-week sales of 13.7 million bushels. The atypical Chinese buying at this time of the year is obviously contributing to the year-over-year sales gains of late with the last three weeks averaging 29.2 million bushels/week in sales vs only 5.1 million/week last year. This week’s activity included 275k tonnes in sales reported to China, with more of that to come in next week’s report based on daily sales announcements in recent days. China’s total commitments are now at 13.5 MMT vs 13.3 MMT at this time last year, but with only 969k tonnes in unshipped purchases vs 7.4 MMT at this time last year. Accordingly, sales to China will continue to be needed if the USDA’s just-lowered 1.675 billion bushel export projection is to be met. Overall total commitments of 1.483 billion bushels are still down nearly 11% from last year’s 1.662 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 12.0 million bushels/week through the end of August, which would be the 2nd largest on record, and notably above last year’s 8.1 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat new crop sales this week were only 150k tonnes (5.5 million bushels), at the bottom of market expectations of 150-300k tonnes and compared to last year’s new crop sales this week of 15.4 million bushels. With only three full weeks remaining before the start of the 2020/21 marketing year, new crop total commitments of 84 million bushels are solidly below last year’s 109 million bushels at this time and are the 2nd lowest of the last eight years three weeks ahead of the new year. Old crop sales were 203k tonnes (7.5 mil bu), in line with expectations of 100-300k tonnes and put 2019/20 total commitments at 969 million bushels vs the USDA’s 970 million bushel export projection. When taking into account the differences between Export Sales data and official Census Bureau export data, as well as flour/product exports, old crop sales on the books are above what is needed in order for the USDA’s export projection to be met, but the actual shipment pace simply remains too slow.
U.S. soybean meal sales were 101k tonnes, at the bottom of market expectations of 100-300k tonnes and were the lowest in 8 weeks, but still met the average “needed” sales pace of 100k tonnes/week in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. SBM sales have slowed of late from the torrid Jan-Feb pace, averaging 125k tonnes/week over the last four weeks and well below last year’s 189k/week during the same period. During Jan-Feb, SBM sales averaged 318k tonnes/week vs 227k/week last year. Total commitments are now down 8% from last year vs USDA projecting 2019/20 exports down just 1%. Soybean oil sales were 6.7k tonnes vs expectations of 5-25k, the lowest in 11 weeks, but still met the mere 4.2k tonne/week average “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s just-raised export projection. Total commitments are up 47% from last year vs USDA projecting a 31% increase in exports on the year.
