-USDA reports corn sales to China
-US/China trade reps to have call next week discussing Phase One deal
-Canadian wheat area estimated up from last year
-Expected frost in coming days being watched for SRW impacts
-Trade estimate summary for next week’s USDA reports
USDA’s monthly WASDE report and Crop Production report will be out next Tuesday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40024. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. The market is watching forecast for frosty temps across much of the Midwest over the coming week for potential impacts on the SRW crop. Corn is not seen at risk.
 Bloomberg reported top trade officials, including USTR Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will hold a call as early as next week to discuss the progress so far in the implementation of the Phase One trade deal. This will be the first talk between the two sides on the matter since the deal was signed in January, which included the provision for talks every 6 months to discuss the progress of the deal, making next week’s expected call ahead of schedule. Official
U.S. trade data through March shows roughly $22.0 billion in total goods were exported to China so far in 2020.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 686k tonnes of corn to China this morning, with 371k tonnes for 2019/20 delivery and 315k for 2020/21.
 Stats Canada estimated this year’s Canadian all wheat planted area at 25.427 million acres, up from last year’s 24.604 million and was in line with average market expectations of 25.3 million (24.0-26.3 million range of ideas). Spring wheat area was estimated at 18.772 million vs 18.782 million last year, with durum at 5.228 million (5.6 million average estimate) vs 4.894 million last year. 2020 canola planted acreage was estimated at 20.615 million acres vs 20.956 million last year and was below the average estimate of 21.1 million (20.5-22.0 million range of ideas). Oat area was estimated at 3.833 million acres (3.8 mil expected) vs 3.606 million last year, barley at 7.25 million (7.1 mil expected) vs 7.42 mil last year and soybeans at 5.220 million (5.5 mil expected) vs 5.714 mil last year.
ï‚· Stats Canada reported total wheat stocks as of March 31 were 17.810 MMT vs 17.537 MMT last year and 17.056 MMT in 2018. March 31 canola stocks were estimated at 8.925 MMT vs 10.180 MMT last year and 9.090 MMT in 2018, while March 31 barley stocks of 3.529 MMT compared to 2.677 MMT last year and 3.390 MMT in 2018. March 31 oat stocks of 1.710 MMT were up from 1.537 MMT last year and compared to 2.110 MMT in 2018.
ï‚· USDA Secretary Perdue said previously-closed U.S. meatpacking plants due to the coronavirus pandemic will be fully back up and running in 7-10 days.
ï‚· Preliminary April trade data showed China imported 6.71 MMT of soybeans in April vs 4.28 MMT in March and 7.64 MMT last year April. This put Oct-Apr marketing year to date imports at 48.5 MMT vs 42.4 MMT for the same period last year. April imports were lower than intended following heavy rains in Brazil in late February/early March slowing their exports. However, Chinese import data in the coming months will look vastly different following the extremely strong
pick-up in Brazilian exports, with some estimating their total exports in April were as high as 16+ MMT. A total of 664k tonnes of edible oils were imported by China in April vs 469k in March and 519k last year April.
ï‚· South Korean feedmills bought 137k tonnes South American corn overnight, with 69k at $170.89/tonne c&f for FH Aug shipment and 68k tonnes at $171.39/tonne c&f for LH Sept shipment. U.S. corn was asked to be excluded from offers for this tender.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/40028 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were 775k tonnes (30.5 million bushels), towards the lower end of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT, falling from the previous week’s strong sales of 53.4 million bushels and were the 2nd lowest the last nine weeks. However, sales continue to run strong relative to the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week were 653k tonnes (24.0 million bushels), at the bottom of market expectations of 600k-1.1 MMT and down from the previous week’s 39.6 million bushels.
ï‚· U.S. old crop wheat sales last week were 245k tonnes (9.0 million bushels), towards the upper end of market expectations of 50-300k tonnes, but new crop sales were weak, though, at just 135k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 131k tonnes were at the bottom of market expectations of 100-250k tonnes, but still were in line with the average “needed” sales, while soybean oil sales of 19k tonnes were in line with market expectations of 5-30k tonnes.
Weather
The next system will bring rains of .25-.75â€+ to the southwest ½ of IA, most of MO and the southern ½ to 2/3 of IL, IN and OH later today into tomorrow. Both models now indicate a system for Sunday to bring rains of generally less than .50†to areas mainly north of a line from Omaha to Cincinnati. There could even be a bit of wet snowflakes mixed in across MN and WI with that system. Conditions will then be quiet for Monday and Tuesday, with another system by Wednesday and
Thursday. The models are still a bit mixed on their ideas with this system, but the general idea calls for most of the region to see totals of .50-1â€+ to fall. The GFS keeps most of the rain out of MN and NW IA, while the European sees only light amounts in NE IL, northern IN and southern MN. Dry weather is seen to return for Friday and the following weekend. Temps will continue to run below average for the next 7-8 days. Tomorrow morning and most of the mornings early next week across most of MN, WI, MI and OH, as well as northern IA to see temps of 27-32. By Saturday morning (the coldest morning of the next 10 days) lows look to be 29-32 in most of the Midwest, with readings of 28 or colder in most of WI, MI, the northern ½ of IL and IN as well as most of OH. A warming to average and even a bit above is seen for the second half of next week.