-Strong planting ideas and Chinese trade concerns weigh on markets
-EU wheat/rapeseed crop ideas lowered
-USDA reports modest corn sale to unknown
-US weather remains mostly favorable
 Expectations for strong planting numbers in this afternoon’s update and continued Chinese trade-related rhetoric from President Trump as the coronavirus blame game evolves weighed on markets overnight. Ideas on this afternoon’s corn planting progress are around 50% (~40% average), with soybeans 20-25% complete (~10% average) and spring wheat 22-25% (~43% average). Winter wheat conditions are expected to be mostly stable.
 The European Commission sees the 2020/21 EU-27 (EU less Britain) soft wheat crop at 125.8 MMT, down marginally from their previous estimate of 126.1 MMT and compares to last year’s 130.8 MMT. The EU-27 barley crop is estimated at 56.1 MMT vs 54.3 MMT previously and 55.1 MMT last year, while the EU-27 rapeseed crop was estimated at 16.5 MMT vs 16.7 MMT previously and last year’s 15.2 MMT. With Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, the Commission altered their projections beginning in the 2020/21 marketing year to be on an EU-27 basis.
 Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of this year’s EU rapeseed crop to 17.0 MMT from 17.6 MMT previously (17.85 MMT month prior) and would be little-changed from last year’s 13-year low crop of 16.9 MMT.
 Sovecon ticke their estimate of April Russian wheat exports up to 3.2 MMT from 3.0 MMT previously and compares to last year’s April exports of 1.9 MMT. 2019/20 marketing year to date wheat exports of 31.1 MMT compares to 33.2 MMT for the same period last year.
ï‚· Following the filling of the allowed 7 MMT April-June grain export quota with sales registrations, old crop Russian wheat prices declined last week with 12.5% protein Black Sea export quotes falling $2/tonne to $228/tonne fob.
 USDA reported the sale of 116k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning. There were no additional soybean sales announced after Friday’s reporting of 264k tonnes sold to China.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 4/28/20 showed funds mostly net sellers in the grain markets, with the exception of soybeans and corn. For the week, funds were net buyers of 7.3k contracts in soybeans, staying essentially net even in the market with a minor net long of 4.4k contracts, while funds were net even on the week in corn and hold a net short of nearly 161k contracts. Funds were net sellers in all three wheat markets for the week of 8.0k contracts CBOT (net long 16k), 5.5k KCBT (net long 5.5k) and 3.2k MPLS (net short 20.6k). Funds were net sellers of 7.8k contracts in soybean meal (net short 8k) and marginal net sellers of 0.3k contracts in soybean oil, holding a short of 11.9k contracts).
 May corn deliveries were 199 contracts as they continue to recirculate, with the last trade date now at 4/28/20. Soybean oil deliveries fell to 167 contracts (1,032 Friday), with SBM deliveries of 4 contracts (22 Friday). KCBT wheat deliveries were 4 contracts, while there were no MPLS wheat deliveries today after Friday’s 271 contracts.
Weather
A system late today into tomorrow will bring rains of .40-1†to most of MN, the SW ½ of IA, the southern ½ of IL/IN and OH, with totals of generally less than .35†in the rest of the region. The rest of the workweek looks dry. A system for later Sunday into Monday is indicated to bring rains of .20-.60â€, with a few isolated heavier totals, to the majority of the region. The European model then quiets things down for the middle of next week, with the GFS indicating another system to bring rains of .25-.75†to most of the region by Wednesday of next week. Conditions are favorable for continued active planting over the coming two-week period in between periods of light rains. Rains of .20-.70†fell across the northern 1/3 of KS over the weekend, with dry weather dominating the rest of the region. A system will bring rains of .50-1†to the eastern ½ of KS and OK today. Some showers are possible in eastern KS and OK by Thursday, with most totals in the .20-.60†range. Otherwise, things look to be mainly dry in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period looks mainly dry through the weekend and then by Monday, rains of .40-1†are seen for the western ½ of TX and most of OK. Little to no rains are seen for KS. Improved rains are expected for a good portion of Russian wheat areas over the coming two weeks and will be a very welcomed development.