-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales lower than expected
-Old crop wheat sales at bottom of expectations, new crop slightly above expectations
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales for the week ended 4/09/20 were 907k tonnes (35.4 million bushels), falling within market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, but declining solidly from sales of the previous three weeks of 72.8 million, 42.3 million and 71.4 million bushels. More importantly, though, they were again above the roughly 16.2 million bushels/week sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection. Old crop sales typically slow dramatically during the final three months of the marketing year (June-August) so sales need to continue running at solid levels for now to help ensure reaching the USDA’s target. The largest sales this week went to Japan with 254k tonnes. There was no activity reported for China. Total commitments of 1.365 billion bushels are down 2% from last year’s 1.759 billion vs the USDA’s annual export estimate reflecting an expected 16.5% decline on the year. Last year corn sales from this point forward averaged just 10.3 million bushels/week.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 245k tonnes (9.0 million bushels) were below market expectations of 300-600k tonnes, were down from the previous week’s 19.2 million bushels, were below last year’s same-week sales of 16.3 million bushels and were a new marketing year low. The largest country-reported sales of the week were a meager 30k tonnes to Japan, while there were sales of 129k tonnes in total to unknown. Chinese activity reflected new sales of a miniscule 6k tonnes. Total commitments of 1.383 billion bushels are down 15% from last year’s 1.627 billion, while the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection reflects and expected 1.5% increase on the year. Soybean sales will need to average roughly 19.6 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s export estimate vs last year’s 8.3 million/week average from this point forward. We continue to feel China will have to buy and ship at least 4-5 MMT of old crop soybeans if the USDA’s projection has any chance of being met.
Old crop U.S. wheat sales last week were 178k tonnes (6.6 million bushels), at the low end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes and down from the previous week’s 9.5 million and last year’s same-week sales of 11.7 million. Despite all the talk of late of rising global export prices and limits being put on other country’s exports, U.S. wheat sales have averaged just 6.3 million bushels/week over the last three weeks. Hopefully that improves as we enter the homestretch of the 2019/20 marketing year. Total old crop commitments of 927 million bushels are up just 1% from last year’s 915 million vs USDA projecting a 5% increase on the year. However, when accounting for the difference between Export Sales and official Census export data and taking into account flour/product exports, it does appear the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection is likely to be met. New crop sales were 420k tonnes (15.4 million bushels), a bit above expectations of 100-300k tonnes and puts 2020/21 commitments at 62 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 60 million.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 159k tonnes were within expectations of 100-250k tonnes, as were soybean oil sales of 21.2k tonnes relative to expectations of 8-35k tonnes. Both exceeded their average weekly “needed” sales paces relative to the USDA’s export projections of 94k and 4k tonnes/week, respectively as overall soybean product export demand remains solid.
