-Russian grain export “limit” likely to move forward but with limited impact expected
-Malaysia expands palm oil shutdowns
-Off-line ethanol capacity continues increasing
-USDA reports new crop soybeans sales
-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the quarterly Grains Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report next tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT.
 Russian ag consultant SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s March wheat exports to 3.0 MMT from 2.7 MMT previously, putting marketing year to date (July-March) exports at 27.6 MMT vs 31.3 MMT last year during the same period. Russia’s economy minister supports the recent proposal to limit Russian total grain exports during April-June to 7.0 MMT, as it now awaits official confirmation. SovEcon said the proposal is reasonable and is seen having little impact as exports would not likely reach the proposed level anyway. Russian wheat prices were strong over the last week, though, with spot 12.5% protein Black Sea export values jumping $10/tonne last week to $217/tonne fob and new crop $15/tonne higher at $222/tonne.
 Malaysia’s largest palm oil-producing state, Sabah, accounting for around 25% of national production, expanded the mandatory shutdown of palm oil plantations and factories to 6 of the state’s 7 districts, previously 3 were impacted, and was extended to April 14. Malaysian palm oil futures, accordingly, were solidly higher overnight on the news, supporting soybean oil, as well.
 Despite the EPA deciding not to appeal the federal court’s ruling that many previously-issued small refinery waivers were not legal, it appears little may change in the near term as the EPA chief Andrew Wheeler said they will not revisit or rescind any previously-granted small refinery exemptions. Specifically, he said, “Investigating and initiating enforcement actions against small refineries that were previously subject to an exemption is a low priority for the agency.†In other actions, the EPA will allow winter gasoline blends to continue being sold until at least May 20 vs the typical May 1 cutoff as the massive decline in gasoline demand has left storage tanks full of winter blends and little room for summer blends to move in.
ï‚· The Renewable Fuels Association sees around 3 billion gallons of ethanol production capacity, 17.5% of nationwide stated nameplate capacity, now offline given the massive decline in gasoline demand. The sharp pullback in ethanol production and DDGS production, accordingly, should somewhat help corn feed demand and at least provide some degree of offset to the potentially major demand loss from ethanol, although this will be impossible to measure.
ï‚· The USDA reported the sale of 285k tonnes of new crop, 2020/21, soybeans to Mexico this morning.
 Ukraine’s 2019/20 corn exports reached 22.8 MMT through the end of March and compare to 20.8 MMT at the same time last year. Exports in March were an estimated 3.7 MMT vs 4.5 MMT last year.
 Strategie Grains slightly lowered their estimate of this year’s EU rapeseed crop to 17.59 MMT from 17.85 MMT previously, but remains modestly above last year’s 16.89 MMT crop. EU sunseed production is seen at 9.72 MMT (9.74 MMT previously) vs 9.39 MMT last year.
ï‚· Vietnam bought 55k tonnes of Ukrainian corn at $204-$205/tonne c&f in an unusual move as they typically buy South American corn. Some see the purchase being 100k+ tonnes.
ï‚· After only being able to purchase 240k tonnes of wheat in their last tender due to limited offers, Algeria again tendered for an unspecified amount of milling wheat for June shipment periods (May if South American), the same period as their previous tender.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 3/24/30 saw funds extending their net short in corn to 108.5k contracts being net sellers of 16.7k contracts on the week. Funds were net buyers in most other markets, reducing net shorts in the process. Funds were net buyers of 28.2k soybeans, moving back to essentially net even (-2.4k), net buyers of 8.0k KCBT wheat (net short 5.4k) and net buyers of 3.6k MPLS wheat (net short 16.3k). Funds were net buyers of 23.3k CBOT wheat, flipping to a small net long of 17.7k contracts and were net buyers of 23.0k SBM to increase their net long to 39.1k. Funds were net sellers of 2.5k SBO, flipping to a minor net short of 0.7k contracts.
Weather The HRW wheat weather outlook remains favorable. After .30-1†fell in the NW 1/3 of KS and .20-.60†in the eastern 2/3 of KS and TX over the weekend, today is expected to bring .50-1â€, locally 1â€+, to the eastern 2/3 of KS, OK and TX, with the western 1/3 seeing mostly under .35â€. The eastern half of the belt sees additional rains in the 6-10 day period, as well. Rains of .25-.75†fell in all Brazilian states over the weekend, with the exception of mainly dry conditions in Minas Gerais only. Rains of .20-.60†fell across all Argentine growing regions over the weekend. Argentina is expected to see widespread .50-1†rains Wed/Thur, and turning drier for the 6-10 period. Brazil is expected to see rains of .50-1.5â€+ fall in most of RGDS, as well as northern Mato Grosso, with totals elsewhere generally under .25†over the next 5 days. The 6-10 day sees rains of .50-1â€+ to fall across most areas with totals generally under .30†in Sao Paulo.