-Corn exports much larger than expected – easily marketing year high
-Soybean exports lower than expected – marketing year low
-Wheat exports near bottom of market expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 3/26/20, of 1.269 MMT (50.0 million bushels) were notably above market expectations of 700k-1.0 MMT (27.6-39.4 million bushels), rising considerably from the previous week’s 858k tonnes (33.8 million bushels) and easily were a marketing year high in surpassing those of two weeks ago at 38.8 million bushels. This is the first week of the 2019/20 marketing year in which exports met/exceeded the average weekly “needed” export pace in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection, currently at an estimated 40.5 million bushels/week. Despite the strong exports, though, no ground was made relative to last year as year ago exports this week were 49.6 million bushels, leaving current cumulative exports of 711 million bushels still down 39% from last year’s 1.168 billion. Export shipments finally appear to be on their way up following the solid pace of sales of late in which each of the last 11 weeks’ corn Export Sales have met/exceeded the average “needed” sales pace. Accordingly, we expect USDA to leave their export projection unchanged in the April 9 WASDE report on the premise that if sales are keeping pace with their projection, the shipments will eventually follow, as well.
U.S. soybean exports were just the opposite of corn in setting a new marketing year low at just 414k tonnes (15.2 million bushels), at the extreme bottom of marketing expectations of 400-700k tonnes (14.7-25.7 million bushels), declining from the previous week’s 587k tonnes (21.6 mil bu) and last year’s same-week exports of 712k tonnes (26.2 mil bu). Moreover, this marked the 4th consecutive week in which soybean exports fell solidly below the current roughly 26.7 million bushels/week “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection. With minimal old crop unshipped Chinese sales on the books, the USDA’s export projection has little chance of being reached without notable late-season purchases by China at some point. This week’s activity reflected no meaningful shipments to China for the week. Cumulative exports of 1.161 billion bushels are down to an 8% year-over-year increase after being up 20%+ just 7 weeks ago. Over the last six weeks, U.S. soybean exports averaged 20.5 million bushels/week vs 33.5 million/week during the same period last year.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 364k tonnes (13.4 million bushels) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 300-600k tonnes (11.0-22.0 mil bu) and were little-changed from the previous week’s 354k tonnes (13.0 mil bu), but were below last year’s same-week exports of 455k tonnes (16.7 mil bu). More importantly, though, wheat exports were considerably below the roughly 23.8 million bushel/week average “needed” pace for the 4th consecutive week and will require a strong late push if the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection is to be met. We’re not ruling that out just yet, though, as last year saw a considerable increase in exports to end the season, averaging 24.2 million bushels/week over the final 9 weeks after averaging just 17.1 million bushels/week during the most-recent 5-week period, which were very similar to this year’s 16.9 million/week average. Additionally, old crop wheat Export Sales have run above the average “needed” pace for the last 11 weeks so it’s just a matter of getting it shipped. Cumulative export inspections of 752 million bushels are up 8.5% from last year’s 693 million, but declining on their way to the USDA’s projected 6.8% year-over-year increase.
