-Winter wheat conditions improve OK/TX, steady KS
-Corn planting underway across the Delta
-Indonesia’s B40 plans questioned
-South Korea continues buying corn
Grain markets stabilized overnight, with a minor bounce expected this morning in equities and energies, although far from convincing, after yesterday’s meltdown. Generally speaking, we may see grains simply “tread water†today awaiting for any new developments.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat conditions saw another good week last week with considerable improvements in the Oklahoma and Texas crops, while Kansas was mostly unchanged. OK saw conditions jump to 67% good/excellent vs 58% g/e a week prior and compares to 60% g/e at this time last year, while TX conditions jumped to 36% g/e from 26% g/e a week ago and compares to 33% at this time last year. KS conditions were little-changed last week at 46% g/e (down 1%) and compare to 49% g/e at this time last year. Arkansas (SRW) conditions at 39% g/e & 9% p/vp compare to 36% g/e & 22% p/vp in their last update last fall as they do not provide updates over the winter months. The only decline in condition was CO at 46% g/e vs 59% g/e at the end of February.
Texas corn planting is 29% complete, advancing little again in the latest week (28% last week) as apparently some got off to a very fast start while others choose a more conventional planting window, and compares to 17% last year and 16% average. Mississippi corn planting is just underway at 1% complete, in line with average and last year. Louisiana corn is 3% planted vs 5% average and 2% last year. AL and GA have not provided updates yet.
 Indonesia’s aggressive plans to further increase the country’s biodiesel blending mandate to a B40 blend in 2021 from this year’s increase to B30 from the B20 mandate in place in 2019 may not be achievable as experts cite a lack of production capacity in order to meet such a high level. It is estimated biorefineries would need to process at least 13 million kiloliters (3.4 billion gallons) of palm oil for a nationwide B40 blend, while capacity for 2021 is currently estimated to reach 11.8 million kl (3.1 bil gallons). Some are also raising concerns about the higher palm-based biodiesel content impact on engine performance as B30 blends are increasingly used this year.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is urging the government to allow the industry to continue to operate over the coming weeks following the ordering of a virtual complete shutdown of all non-essential movement in the country through the end of the month as part of coronavirus-related curbs.
ï‚· South Korea bought 132k tonnes of optional-origin corn overnight, as they actively continue picking up cheap cargos amid the ongoing price slide. A cargo for July 15 arrival was priced at $199.98/tonne c&f, while and August 15 arrival cargo was priced at $190.23/tonne c&f.
Weather A front will bring rains of .70-1.5†to most of the Argentine growing regions in the next 24 hours. The rest of the week looks to be mainly dry. The 6-10 outlook is mixed with the GFS indicating dry weather to dominate most areas, while the European sees dry weather for the weekend and Monday and then rains of 1-2†to fall in the far western growing areas, with .50-1†in the heart of their growing regions. The bias is leaning towards the European model. Rains of .25-.75†fell across most of Goias as well as into the eastern sections of Parana, Santa Catarina and RGDS with dry conditions elsewhere in Brazil. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across most of Mato Grosso and Goias in the next 5 days, while being fairly quiet in Minas Gerais. Rains will get going across RGDS, Santa Catarina, Parana and into southern MGDS/Sao Paulo in the next day or so and continue off and on through the week, with totals over the next 5 days expected to be .40-1†range with some 1â€+ totals also occurring. The 6-10 day period shows 1-2†look from the northern ½ of Parana north for the weekend and first half of next week, with things mainly dry south