-Grain markets lower amid notable equity/energy market weakness
-NOPA crush report today – record Feb crush expected, highest SBO stocks since 2013
-Russian March wheat exports proving much larger than expected
-Good Argentine rains over the weekend, more expected tomorrow
-China encourages foreign pig production expansion by domestic companies
Equity and energy markets are in meltdown mode again to start the week (RBOB down nearly 18%, crude oil down 8%) as ideas of the duration of the coronavirus impact in the U.S. get lengthened potentially into May. The Fed’s weekend rate cut to essentially zero did little to ease concerns of the potential economic hit from the coronavirus situation.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush report will be out at 11:00 AM CT today. The average estimate of February soybean crush by NOPA members is 165.0 million bushels (163.1-166.7 mil range of ideas) vs 176.9 million in January and 154.5 million last year Feb. Any level above last year would reflect a new record for the month of February, with the average estimate indicated an expected 6.8% increase. The average estimate of end February soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 2.037 billion pounds (1.927-2.125 billion range of ideas) and would be up from January stocks of 2.013 billion and last year’s Feb stocks of 1.752 billion. Any level of stocks above 1.893 billion pounds would be the largest for February since 2013.
ï‚· Chinese soybean and soybean meal futures were higher overnight on concerns the coronavirus pandemic could eventually slow shipments of Brazilian soybeans. So far, the situation has not resulted in a slowdown in port activity.
ï‚· Russian wheat exports last week jumped sharply to 725k tonnes, a 30% increase from the previous week, resulting in SovEcon notably raising their estimate of March wheat exports to 2.7 MMT from 1.8 MMT previously and would reflect a near doubling of February exports of 1.38 MMT and being well above year ago March exports of 1.933 MMT. Marketing year to date (Jul-Mar) wheat exports are estimated at 27.1 MMT vs 31.3 MMT last year pending official March data. Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices from Black Sea ports fell by $6/tonne last week to $207/tonne fob.
 Germany’s association of farm cooperatives, in their first estimate of the 2020/21 crop, sees this year’s wheat crop at 22.8 MMT, down only slightly from last year’s 23.1 MMT as an expected improvement in yields from last year nearly offsets the estimated 6.1% decline in planted area. The coming rapeseed crop is estimated at 3.44 MMT, up nearly 22% from last year’s historically poor crop. Winter crops remain in good shape, but continued, regular rains this spring have hampered summer crop activity.
 Coceral lowered their estimate of 2020/21 EU soft wheat production to 136.5 MMT from 137.9 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 145.7 MMT, with this month’s reduction due entire to lower British expectations as combined production from all other EU countries was left unchanged.
ï‚· China issued a statement encouraging qualified domestic companies to expand pig production in countries outside of China where strong bilateral trade agreements are in place that would allow products to be exported back to China in an effort to ramp up pork production to more normal levels as quickly as possible.
ï‚· Malaysia lowered the export tax on crude palm oil to 5% for the month of April from the current 6% rate given the decline in prices of late resulting in a lowering of the reference price used to calculate the tax rate.
 Ukrainian ag consultant APK-Inform ticked their estimate of the country’s 2019/20 wheat exports up to 19.0 MMT from 18.9 MMT previously.
ï‚· A South Korean feedmill bought a cargo of optional-origin corn at $202.90/tonne c&f for August 5 arrival.
Weather Rains of .50-1â€+ fell across most of the Argentine growing regions over the weekend. A front will bring rains of .70-1.5†to most of the Argentine growing regions tomorrow. Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. In Brazil, rains of .50-1â€+ fell across around 75% of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and RGDS over the weekend, while being dry elsewhere. Rains of 1-2†will fall across most of Mato Grosso and Goias in the next 5 days, with things fairly quiet in Minas Gerais. Activity will get underway across RGDS, Santa Catarina, Parana and into southern MGDS/Sao Paulo early this week and continue off and on through the week with 5-day totals expected to be in the .40-1†range with some 1â€+ totals also occurring. In the 6-10 day period, 1-2†is expected from the northern ½ of Parana north for the weekend and early next week, with conditions mainly dry south.