-Argentine soybean crop ideas lower/corn held steady
-No USDA sales announcements
-CME announces indefinite closure of Chicago trading floor
-Australia Jan wheat exports record high
-Soybean export sales included Chinese net cancellations
-March corn sees first deliveries
-Russia sees no reason to limit wheat exports
Equity and energy markets are under considerable pressure again this morning as coronavirus-related economic concerns remain the overwhelming focus. Grain markets were sharply lower overnight in reaction, as well.
ï‚· The CME Group announced an indefinite closure of Chicago trading floors due to coronavirus prevention measures, effective the close of business tomorrow. All trading will continue, as usual, on Globex.
 The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop to 51.5 MMT from 55.0 MMT previously, citing the 23-day stretch of no precip in some growing regions lowering yield potential. The recent return of rains should help limit further losses in the areas that receive them, but the Exchange feels enough impact has already occurred to limit top end yields as previously seen possible. USDA raised their estimate of the Argentine soybean crop earlier this week to 54.0 MMT from 53.0 MMT and compares to last year’s 55.3 MMT crop. The Exchange maintained their estimate of the Argentine corn crop at 50.0 MMT citing strong yields in early-harvested crops, which account for 7% of total area already. The USDA is also currently estimating their corn crop at 50.0 MMT and compares to last year’s 51.0 MMT.
ï‚· Australia exported 1.3 MMT of wheat in January, a new record for the month, up solidly from Dec exports of 920k tonnes and year ago Jan exports of 855k .
ï‚· Based on current economic/trade conditions, Russia said they see no need at this time to impose any limits on wheat exports for the 2019/20 marketing year, leaving the export tariff at zero. They do not see conditions that would warrant a notable increase in domestic wheat prices going forward and maintained their 2019/20 total grain export outlook at 45 MMT.
ï‚· Strategie Grains raised their estimate of 2019/20 EU soft wheat exports outside the EU by 600k tonnes this month to 31.2 MMT.
ï‚· Algeria ended up buying around 600k tonnes of soft milling wheat, some ideas as high at 700k, expected to mostly be sourced from France, with prices between $226-$227/tonne c&f and for May shipment. In their previous tender a month ago, they bought 660k tonnes around $237.50/tonne c&f.
ï‚· The first March corn deliveries of the cycle were issued today with ADM putting out 106 contracts and were through 2/27/20.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39334 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were 303k tonnes (11.1 million bushels), below market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 12.7 million bushels and were the 2nd lowest of 2019/20, besting only the Christmas week sales of 9.3 million bushels. This week’s activity included net cancellations by China of 90k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were a 12-week high at 1.471 MMT (57.9 million bushels), beating market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, rising solidly from the previous two weeks’ sales of 30.4 million and 33.9 million bushels, and sharply outpacing last year’s same-week sales of just 14.7 million bushels.
 U.S. wheat sales of 452k tonnes (16.6 million bushels) were within market expectations of 200-600k tonnes and have averaged 16.6 million bushels/week over the last six weeks vs the roughly 7.6 million/week “needed†to reach the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were respectable at 172k tonnes, and while they were in the lower portion of elevated market expectations of 125-400k tonnes, they easily met the roughly 111k tonne/week average “needed” sales pace. Soybean oil sales were respectable, as well, at 24.7k tonnes (7-35k expected), easily keeping up with the current “needed†pace of roughly 7.2k tonnes/week.
Weather Rain totals of .70-1.5†were seen in the heart of Argentine growing regions (La Pampa, Buenos Aries and the southern ½ to 2/3 of Santa Fe and Entre Rios) yesterday. Rains will continue over the next five days with the northern ½ to 2/3 of La Pampa and Buenos Aries, as well as the southern ½ to 2/3 of Santa Fe and Entre Rios seeing activity for the next 2 days and then expanding north into all Argentine growing regions with the exception of Corrientes. Totals over the next 5 days will be in the .70-1.5†range, with areas of 1.5â€+ also possible. Rains of .40-1†are expected from northern Buenos Aries and La Pampa north in the 6-10 day period. Rains of .20-.80†fell across the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais yesterday. Rains continue the northern ½ of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the few days and then the rains will be gradually creep south to impact most of these three states by the weekend with totals of 1-2†expected in the northern ½ of these states, and .30-.70†south. The rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be mainly dry for the next 5 days. Rains of .50-1â€+ with 85% coverage of all regions is expected in the 6-10 day period.