-Winter wheat conditions improve KS/OK-decline TX
-Texas corn planting remains sharply ahead of average
-Brazil modestly raises soybean crop, corn mostly unchanged
-China leaves soybean/corn balance sheets unchanged
-Brazilian farmer selling of soybeans/corn historically strong amid currency weakness
-USDA reports modest soybean sale again
-Malaysian Feb palm oil stocks lower than expected
-Argentine rains favorable
-Australian wheat seed sales very strong ahead of planting – massive production jump expected
-USDA report today at 11:00 AM – trade estimate summary included
U.S. markets are attempting to rebound following yesterday’s widespread massive sell-off, but an uneasy atmosphere certainly remains. USDA’s WASDE report is out today at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39206.
 Winter wheat conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma improved again last week, with KS now at 47% good/excellent and 18% poor/very poor vs 43% g/e, 20% p/vp a week earlier and compares to 51% g/e, 9% p/vp at this time last year. OK improved considerably last week with 14% of the crop now rated excellent and 44% good vs 2% excellent/55% good a week earlier. At this time last year, the OK crop was 8% excellent/48% good. Texas conditions declined solidly last week, though, to 26% g/e, 34% p/vp from 36% g/e, 23% p/vp the previous week, but are more back in line with where conditions had been since last fall as last week’s report reflected an aberration of higher conditions. The TX crop is already 25% headed vs 1% average and 6% last year. The USDA’s first full Crop Progress update of the year will be released Monday, April 6.
 Texas corn planting is already 28% complete, up solidly from the previous week’s 12% and substantially ahead of 10% average and last year’s 11%.
 CONAB raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 124.2 MMT from 123.3 MMT last month (115.0 MMT last year), which is still below USDA’s last estimate of 125.0 MMT and the average trade estimate of today’s USDA update at 125.2 MMT, but it is the direction of the revision that’s most important. They ticked their estimate of the 1st corn crop down to 25.6 MMT from 26.1 MMT previously and is essentially unchanged from last year, while the 2nd crop (safrinha) was marginally revised to 73.4 MMT from 73.3 MMT last month and compares to 73.2 MMT last year, putting the total corn crop at 100.1 MMT vs 100.5 MMT last month and 100.0 MMT last year. USDA was last at 101.0 MMT. CONAB left their estimate of the coming year’s corn exports unchanged from last month at 34.0 MMT, which would be down solidly from old crop exports of 41.2 MMT. CONAB is still working on revised soybean balance sheet estimates amid differences between their last official numbers and old crop exports apparently being solidly larger.
 Brazilian farmer sales of this year’s soybean crop continue at an extremely aggressive clip amid the notable weakness in the Brazilian Real resulting in local prices to farmers being the highest in years despite the record crop. Safras & Mercado estimates this year’s crop is already 61% sold by farmers vs 46% average for this point of the year, 43% last year at this time and 44% two years ago. Moreover, they estimate around 14% of next year’s crop (based on unchanged production ideas from this year) has already been sold, with nothing remotely comparing historically for new crop sales at that level already at the beginning of March. New crop corn sales have been solid, as well, with an estimated 28% already sold by farmers vs 17% at this time last year, but purchases have reportedly been heavily biased towards domestic users vs exporters so far.
 Brazil’s soybean harvest is 49% complete, up from 40% the previous week, and compares to 52% last year and 47% average. 1st crop corn harvest is 41% complete vs 42% average, while 2nd crop (safrinha) planting is 78% complete vs 61% last week, 86% average and 91% last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 123k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning and follows yesterday similar announcement of 123.5k tonnes.
 China left their corn, soybean and edible oil balance sheet ideas completely unchanged this month, as was the case in February as well, stating they do not expect the coronavirus epidemic to have a negative impact on overall, marketing year total, soybean demand for 2019/20. Their 2019/20 soybean import estimate remains at 87.7 MMT vs 85.0 MMT last year and USDA’s current 88.0 MMT estimate.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported the country’s end February palm oil stocks were 1.682 MMT, below the average trade estimate of 1.755 MMT and down from Jan stocks of 1.755 MMT and nearly half last year’s Feb stocks of 3.045 MMT. Feb stocks were the lowest since June 2017. February Malaysian palm oil production was 1.289 MMT, marginally above average expectations of 1.280 MMT and up from 1.172 MMT in January but below year ago Feb’s 1.545 MMT. Malaysia exported 1.082 MMT of palm oil in February, well below average expectations of 1.214 MMT, January’s 1.282 MMT and last year’s 1.321 MMT. The combination of the production, stocks and export data implied domestic usage in February was up nearly 18% from January.
 Even though planting is still more than a month away across eastern Australia, dealers are reporting extremely strong wheat seed sales following the best rains in years as optimism is very high for this year’s crop prospects. ABARES has put preliminary ideas on the coming crop at 21.3 MMT, which would be a 40% increase from last year, while there are private ideas as high as 27-28 MMT if rains continue into planting in April/May. Australia’s record production was 31.8 MMT in 2016/17, while USDA is currently reflecting last year’s crop at 15.6 MMT
 SovEcon sees Russia’s wheat exports in March hitting 1.8 MMT vs last year’s 1.933 MMT, but February exports were just 1.380 MMT, notably below their previous ideas of as much as 1.900 MMT. Based on the March estimate, 2019/20 (Jul-Mar) total exports of 26.2 MMT compare to 31.3 MMT last year.
Weather Argentina saw rains of .40-1†across the northern ½ of Buenos Aries and La Pampa, as well as the southern 1/3 to ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rios yesterday. Rains will continue across the northern ½ to 2/3 of La Pampa and Buenos Aries, as well as the southern ½ to 2/3rd of Santa Fe and Entre Rios over the next 5 days with totals mostly .70-1.5†range, with areas of 1.5â€+ also possible. Over the weekend, rains impact all growing areas with another .70-1â€+ expected. In Brazil, .20-.60†rains were scattered across far northern sections of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais yesterday. the northern ½ of Mato Grosso and Goias, as well the northern 1/3 of Minas Gerais will see 1-2†rains over the next 5 days. Roughly 85% of all growing areas are expected to see .50-1†rains in the 6-10 day period.