-Corn exports at top end of expectations, but still well below “needed” pace
-Soybean exports as expected
-Wheat exports as expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 2/13/20, were 795k tonnes (31.3 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 600-800k tonnes (23.6-31.5 mil bu), were up marginally from the previous week’s 789k tonnes (31.0 mil bu) and did reflect a new marketing year high. However, they were, once again, well below the roughly 39.5 million bushels/week we estimate corn exports need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection as not a single week’s exports through 24 weeks of the marketing year have reached the “needed” level. Cumulative exports of 485 million bushels are down 49% from last year’s 952 million. Corn exports from this point forward last year averaged 32.3 million bushels/week so the recent improvement in the overall sales pace will need to continue through the end of the marketing year if the USDA’s export projection has a possibility of being met.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 992k tonnes (36.5 million bushels) were up from the previous week’s 641k tonnes (23.5 mil bu) and were within market expectations of 700k-1.25 MMT (25.7-45.9 mil bu), while continuing to run above the average “needed” pace of 25.5 million bushels/week for the time being prior to the seasonal ramping up of Brazilian exports. This week’s exports included just 203k tonnes to China, with their estimated outstanding commitments now down to around 500k tonnes based on last week’s Export Sales data. Cumulative exports of 1.039 billion bushels are still up 19% from last year’s 875 million, but declining after having been up 26% just seven weeks ago. Soybean exports from this point forward last year averaged 28.7 million bushels/week.
U.S. wheat exports last week were 502k tonnes (18.4 million bushels), within market expectations of 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 mil bu) and were solidly above last year’s same-week exports of 364k tonnes (13.4 mil bu), but were below the roughly 20.8 million bushels/week we estimate wheat exports need to average through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection. While not yet too concerning, as the overall sales pace has been quite respectable, shipping activity will need to pick up at some point as exports over the last 8 weeks have averaged just 16.3 million bushels/week, with not a single week exceeding the current “needed” pace over this time frame. Cumulative exports of 652 million bushels are up 12.5% from last year’s 579 million. Wheat exports from this point forward last year averaged 22.1 million bushels/week.
