-Attache sees Brazil soybean crop larger than USDA
-Attache sees Ukraine corn/wheat exports lower than USDA
-China lowers import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, but only minimally
-Trade estimate summary for upcoming WASDE report
-Export Sales solid corn/soybeans/SBM/SBO
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be released next Tuesday, February 11. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38897. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 The USDA ag attaché in Brazil sees this year’s soybean crop at 124.5 MMT, a new record, modestly above the USDA’s last official estimate of 123.0 MMT and up solidly from last year’s 116.0 MMT (USDA currently reflecting last year’s crop at 117.0 MMT). The attaché sees the coming year’s Brazilian soybean exports at 75.0 MMT (local marketing year Feb-Mar) vs USDA last at 74.6 MMT and up slightly from last year’s 74.0 MMT, while crush is seen rising to 44.0 MMT (USDA 43.9 MMT) from 42.6 MMT last year. The attaché’s balance sheets reflect absolute minimal old crop ending stocks at just 200k tonnes vs USDA’s current 750k tonnes official estimate, with stocks in the new crop balance sheet recovering to 3.33 MMT according to the attaché vs USDA’s 2.95 MMT estimate. There would appear to be room in both the attaché’s and USDA’s official numbers for new crop exports to bump a bit higher if needed.
 The USDA ag attaché in Ukraine sees old crop (current marketing year) corn production at 35.9 MMT, a bit above the USDA’s official estimate of 35.5 MMT and little-changed from 2018/19’s 35.8 MMT, but with a different view on 2019/20 demand than USDA. The attaché sees this year’s Ukrainian corn exports at 28.1 MMT vs USDA last at 30.5 MMT and down from last year’s 30.3 MMT, but with domestic feed/residual usage at 6.2 MMT, considerably above USDA’s 3.9 MMT estimate and up from last year’s 5.0 MMT. Through just the first four months of 2019/20, Ukraine has already exported 16.5 MMT of corn vs 12.2 MMT at the same time last year, leaving the attaché’s view of declining exports a bit suspect, perhaps, but they see higher domestic feed usage reducing exportable supplies as the year progresses.
 The USDA attaché in Ukraine sees 2019/20 (July-June) wheat exports at 19.0 MMT, moderately below USDA’s 20.5 MMT official estimate, but up solidly from last year’s 16.0 MMT. They also see wheat feed/residual usage higher than USDA, as is the case with corn, at 4.0 MMT vs USDA’s 2.8 MMT and last year’s 3.4 MMT (USDA 2.5 MMT).
ï‚· China announced they are halving import tariffs on more than 1700 U.S. products effective February 14 as part of the implementation of the Phase One trade deal. The products involved do include commodities, with the standard 5% import tariff on U.S. soybeans being lowered to 2.5%, but the added 25% tariff as part of the trade war remains in effect. This move will lower the Chinese import tariff on U.S. soybeans to 27.5% from 30% currently. Similar tariff reductions are being made on pork and crude oil among other commodities, but the large-scale supplemental tariffs on all products still remain in place.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of U.S. corn at $221.82/tonne c&f for April 25 arrival.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38905 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were solid again at 1.248 MMT (49.1 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 600k-1.3 MMT, ticking higher from the previous week’s 48.6 mil bu and, for the 4th consecutive week, beating the average weekly “needed” sales pace of roughly 27.4 million bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week were 704k tonnes (25.9 mil bu), within market expectations of 400-800k tonnes and up from the previous week’s 14.7 mil bu. However, this week’s sales got a visual boost as last week’s sales were revised lower from originally being reported at 17.3 mil bu. China was shown as a new buyer of a mere 32k tonnes for the week.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were modest at 339k tonnes (12.4 mil bu), within market expectations of 200-700k tonnes, above the roughly 9.0 million/week they need to average in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection, but were the lowest in four weeks.
ï‚· Soybean meal sales were solid at 213k tonnes, easily beating the roughly 126k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection, but pulled back from the blistering pace of the previous three weeks’ sales of 375-642k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were strong at 52.9k tonnes, in the upper end of market expectations of 12-60k tonnes and were the 2nd highest of 2019/20 so far.