-Soybean exports higher than expected
-Corn exports in lower end of expectations
-Wheat exports as expected
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 1/30/20, were 1.356 MMT (49.8 million bushels), above market expectations of 550k-1.2 MMT (20.2-44.1 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 1.059 MMT (38.9 mil bu) and above last year’s same-week exports of 1.093 MMT (40.2 mil bu). This week’s exports included 552k tonnes to China, leaving only roughly 580k tonnes in outstanding sales remaining on the books for China based on last week’s Export Sales report if no additional sales were made and/or sales previously reported as “unknown” being switched to China. Cumulative exports of 977 million bushels are up 23% from last year’s 793 million at this time, leaving exports needing to average roughly 24.3 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 29.5 million/week average from this point forward, which featured an atypically strong June-August export program as China resumed shipping U.S. soybeans.
U.S. corn exports last week of 562k tonnes (22.1 mil bu) were in the lower end of market expectations of 500-800k tonnes (19.7-31.5 mil bu), were down from the previous week’s 680k tonnes (26.8 mil bu) and last year’s same-week exports of 912k tonnes (35.9 mil bu) while also being well below the roughly 40.6 mil bu/week corn exports will need to average through the end of August if the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection is to be reached. Through the first 22 weeks of 2019/20, the largest weekly exports were just 27.5 million bushels and have averaged just 19.4 million bushels/week so far. The recent pick up in new sales, though, should spur an increase in exports accordingly. The question is simply whether it will be too little, too late. Cumulative exports of 422 million bushels are down 52% from last year’s 886 million at this time.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 414k tonnes (15.2 mil bu) were within market expectations of 300-500k tonnes (11.0-18.4 mil bu), were near last year’s same-week exports of 443k tonnes (16.3 mil bu) and rebounded from the previous week’s marketing year low 226k tonnes (8.3 mil bu). However, the were below the roughly 18.9 million bushels/week wheat exports will need to average through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection. With the continued decent pace of new sales, though, the USDA’s export projection appears likely to be met, if not even slightly exceeded. Cumulative exports of 611 million bushels are up 12.2% from last year’s 545 million bushels at this time.
