-Russia sees solid increase in 2020/21 grain crop
-India set for massive/record wheat crop
-Egypt tenders for wheat – France/Romania lowest
-Corn/wheat/SBM/SBO export sales solid – soybeans not so much
ï‚· Preliminary new crop ideas presented by the Russian Ag Ministry reflected a potential increase in total grain production in 2020/21 to rise to 125.3 MMT from 120.7 MMT in 2019/20 and 113.3 MMT in 2018/19. Overall winter grain conditions remain favorable with less than 6% of total area considered in bad condition vs 8% last year. Dryness has been a concern in some areas, but longer-term weather ideas indicate the potential for a shift to above normal precip in the 6-10 day period. Russian winter grain area (primarily wheat) is estimated to be up around 4% from last year, while spring grain area is seen near unchanged year-over-year.
 Indian private weather forecaster, Skymet, sees the potential for a massive, record-breaking wheat crop this year, possibly jumping 10%+ from last year to 113 MMT following a solid increase in planted area, combined with very favorable moisture conditions amid this year’s strong monsoon season. Last year’s Indian wheat production was 102.2 MMT. India has resisted returning to the export market in recent year despite continued rising stock levels, though, with 2019/20 ending stocks currently estimated at 20.7 MMT, more than double levels just three years ago and the highest since 2012/13. However, in 2012/13 and 2013/14, India was a notable wheat exporter, shipping 8.7 MMT and 5.4 MMT, respectively, in those years amid high stocks levels. If the current crop ideas prove valid, it will be interesting to see if Indian returns to the export market in an attempt to manage their sharply increasing stocks.
ï‚· COFCO has reportedly asked all of its soybean crushers and rice processors to resume operations immediately, prior to the official end of the Lunar New Year holiday on Monday, in order to increase supplies amid the coronavirus outbreak.
 Reduced vegoil demand ideas for China and India have notably weighted on Ukrainian sunflower oil prices over the last week, dropping by $35/tonne from last week to $730-$750/tonne fob Black Sea. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, shipping 6.1 MMT in 2018/19 and nearly 2.0 MMT since the start of 2019/20 in September.
ï‚· After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for March 11-25 shipment. The lowest offer was French wheat at $246.50/tonne c&f, followed by Romanian at $247.09 c&f and Ukrainian at $249.95 c&f. A total of 300k tonnes was offered at prices below the lowest Russian offer at $251.16/tonne c&f. On a fob basis, French wheat was the lowest at $231.50-$234.30/tonne, followed by Romanian at $234.79 and Ukrainian at $235.50. U.S. wheat was not offered.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 30k tonnes of soybean oil to Egypt for 2019/20 this morning.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38823 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· The long-awaited/discussed rebound in U.S. corn export sales appears to be underway with another week of strong sales as the South American export program winds down. This week’s 1.235 MMT (48.6 million bushels) sales were above market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, were up from the previous week’s 40.3 million bushels, were the highest in six weeks and the 3rd highest of the first 21 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were disappointing at 470k tonnes (17.3 mil bu), falling in the lower end of market expectations of 400k-1.0 MMT, below the previous two week’s 29.0 mil and 23.3 mil bu and below the roughly 20.2 mil bu/week sales needed to average in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales continue to impress with 646k tonnes (23.7 mil bu) sold last week, at the upper end of market expectations of 300-700k tonnes and well above the roughly 10.3 mil bu/week wheat sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales simply continue to blister with another huge week of 439k tonnes sold, following the previous week’s 6-year high sales of 642k tonnes and 375k tonnes two weeks ago. Soybean oil sales were solid, as well, at 29.4k tonnes (8-40k expected) and followed sales the previous two weeks of 55.5k and 36.2k tonnes.