-Export Sales delayed until Friday
-African swine fever in Europe in focus
-South Korea buys U.S. corn
-Favorable South American weather outlook
-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
Export Sales are delayed until tomorrow due to a winter storm impacting Washington. USDA’s Annual Crop Production report, quarterly Grain Stocks report, monthly WASDE report and Winter Wheat Seedings report will all be out tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38543. A summary of the trade estimates is on the following page.
 While most experts view African swine fever issues in Europe being considerably less impactful/risky than the current massive issues being experienced in China given the greater controls/regulations in place, it is hard to fully ignore the ongoing presence and new reports of cases in eastern Europe. The second industrial farm in five days in northeast Bulgaria reported an outbreak of ASF, resulting in the culling of around 40k pigs. Late last year, six outbreaks were reported in the region, resulting in 130k pigs culled. Separately, Poland reported 55 identified cases of ASF in wild boar near the German border in December. German border states have been building fences in an attempt to keep wild boars out to prevent the spread of the disease to commercial hog operations. Germany is the largest pig producer in the EU, accounting for roughly 20% of the bloc’s total.
ï‚· Chinese officials confirmed their trade delegation is set to arrive in Washington on Monday for the planned January 15 Phase One deal signing.
ï‚· In an apparent confirmation of market talk this week, Bloomberg reported private Chinese buyers have purchased around 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans this week, believed to be for Feb-Apr shipment. While China typically buys large quantities of South American soybeans at this time as new crop supplies become available, the timing of the purchases coming immediately ahead of the U.S./China Phase One trade deal signing is viewed as a disappointment by some to U.S. sales prospects once the deal is complete.
ï‚· Egypt bought 300k tonnes of wheat following their tender earlier this week, with 120k tonnes Russian, 120k Romanian and 60k Ukrainian.
ï‚· A South Korean feedmill bought 66k tonnes of U.S. corn at $207.49/tonne c&f for Jan 25-Feb 25 shipment off the PNW. A separate purchase was made by another South Korean feedmill of 69k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $211.95/tonne c&f for LH March-FH April shipment depending on source. See U.S. corn work into South Korea is encouraging.
ï‚· Following the increase in the biodiesel blending guideline to B30 in 2018, Indonesia said they will start road tests of B40 blends in April. Indonesia produced 8.37 million kiloliters (2.2 billion gallons) of biodiesel in 2019, above the initial target of 7.37 million kl, and aims to produce 10 million kl (2.64 billion gallons) in 2020. For reference, U.S. biodiesel production in 2019 was around 1.8 billion gallons.
Weather Rains of .20-.80†fell across the southern 2/3 of Buenos Aries and the southern 1/3 of Santa Fe in Argentina yesterday. Rains of .20- .80â€+ are expected for most of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes in the next 24 hours, with similar results for the same areas by Sunday again. The next rains of .50- 1â€+ are expected for most areas by Wednesday of next week. Rains of .35-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, fell across around 80% of the Brazilian growing regions north of Parana, with things dry from Parana south yesterday. The next 5 days sees rains of .50-1+ for areas north of Parana, with .35-1â€+ south. Widespread .50-1.5†amounts are expected in the 6-10 day period.