-Palm oil strength overnight expected to prompt firm opening in SBO/soybeans
-India lowers palm oil import tax
-EIA/Export Sales data delayed to Friday – CFTC COT data Monday
Due to the New Year’s Day holiday, this week’s EIA ethanol data and USDA Export Sales data will be released on Friday. CFTC COT data is delayed until Monday. News is quite light this morning with next Friday’s, January 10, major USDA reports gaining focus. Moisture conditions across most South American growing regions remain favorable, but southern Brazil is being watched a bit more closely as a good shot of rains would be welcome.
A bit of a firmer start is expected on the hard opening this morning led by soybean oil following notable strength in palm oil overnight. Soybeans are expected to be modestly higher, while corn and wheat are seen slightly higher.
ï‚· India lowered the import tax on crude palm oil from Southeast Asian countries to 37.5% from 40% previously and on refined palm oil to 45% from 50% previously. Malaysian palm oil future rallied overnight, accordingly, on optimism of a resurgence in exports to India. Indian palm oil imports in November were a 17-month low. The import taxes on rival soybean oil and sunflower oil were left unchanged.
 China eased customs regulations for the import of soybeans through some northern border locations in what, theoretically, makes importing soybeans from Russia, Kazakhstan and potentially Ukraine easier. Keep in mind, though, that Russia’s total annual soybean exports in recent years have only been 800-900k tonnes, while Ukraine has exported only 2.5-2.7 MMT annually the last two years.
ï‚· A January 15 signing of the Phase One trade deal is expected as the market continues to await further details of the deal and signs of renewed Chinese buying of U.S. ag products.
ï‚· January soybean deliveries remain heavy at 597 contracts, but 391 were stopped by COFCO. Soybean meal deliveries rose to 1,485 contracts from first notice day issues of 1,355 contracts (fresh 200 put out by Cargill), while soybean oil saw 605 contracts put out today vs FND deliveries of 1,003 contracts.
 This afternoon, USDA will put out the monthly Oilseeds Crushing report for November data. The average estimate of U.S.-wide soybean crush in November is 175.9 million bushels (175.0-177.0 million range of ideas), which would be 6.7% above NOPAmember crush for the month, exactly the same deviation as was seen in October. The average estimate reflects a pullback from U.S. total crush in October of 187.2 million bushels and a slight decline from last year’s Nov crush of 178.1 mil bu. The average estimate of end November U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.839 billion pounds (1.802-1.870 billion range of ideas), up slightly from 1.821 billion in October, but modestly below last year’s Nov stocks of 1.900 billion pounds. The average estimate reflects U.S. total stocks 27.0% above NOPA stocks, in line with the 28.0% difference in October and 26.7% average difference over the last previous three months.
Weather Dry weather dominated Argentine growing regions yesterday. The next rains are expected on Sunday with widespread coverage of .50-1â€, with areas of 1â€+, and another system to follow the following Thur-Fri with .50-1â€+ expected for most of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and Corrientes. Brazil saw .30-1†rains yesterday across roughly 85% of the country’s growing areas, with the exception being RGDS. Tropical, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of 2-3†across most of Minas Gerais and Goias in the next 5 days, with totals of .50-1â€+ in Mato Grosso, MGDS, Sao Paulo and Parana. Conditions look to be mainly dry across Santa Catarina and RGDS. In the 6-10 day period, .50-1.5â€+ is expected for most Brazilian growing regions.