-Phase One deal signing appears set for this week in Washington
-China approves GMO varieties for import and domestic production in potential policy shift indication
-Argentina sees good rains, more on the way
-Indonesia to begin palm oil export tax
Grain markets will have normal trading sessions today and tomorrow, be fully closed on Wednesday, January 1 with a hard opening at 8:30 AM CT on Thursday. CFTC COT data will be out this afternoon having been delayed from last Friday due to the Christmas holiday.
ï‚· The South China Morning Post said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He plans to come to Washington this week to sign the Phase One trade deal with the U.S. ï‚· Indonesia will start issuing a $50/tonne export tax on crude palm oil in January as prices continue to rise above set threshold levels to determine export tax rates. Despite prices being high enough in recent months to warrant an export tax, the government has waived them in order to protect farmers, but will no longer beginning in January.
ï‚· Ukraine corn exports for the 2019/20 marketing year so far (July-Dec) reached 11.4 MMT vs 9.1 MMT during the same period last year.
 China approved one new GMO soybean variety for import from the U.S., while renewing permits for 10 other grain/oilseed/cotton GMO varieties for another three years. They also plan to approve the first GMO soybean variety for domestic cultivation, as well as two GMO corn varieties for domestic production as well. While a few GMO corn varieties were approved for domestic production as early as 2009, there has never been a move to use them in commercial production. Some feel these developments are a sign of a policy change in the Chinese government which could usher in the start of commercial GMO corn and soybean production domestically. The issuing of permits to allow domestic cultivation of the GMO varieties is subject to a 15-day public comment period first. Should commercial production of GMO varieties actually move forward and take hold, the impact on Chinese production could be quite substantial as their average corn yield over the last three years has been 98.4 bushels/acre, with soybeans averaging 28.2 bu/acre during the same period. Last year’s crops both saw record yields of 100.6 and 28.9 bu/acre, respectively, but are obviously substantially below levels achieved with GMO varieties.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for January deliveries. Ideas for soybean and soybean oil deliveries are up to 1,000 contracts, while SBM deliveries are expected to be 500-900 contracts.
Weather Rains of 1-2â€+ fell across around 95% of the Argentine growing regions Saturday and Sunday. Rains will finish up in the next 24 hours, with additional totals of .50-1.5†and coverage of around 85%, with condition turning mostly dry for the rest of the week and remaining so in the 6-10 day period with the exception of a few spotty showers possible in the south. In Brazil, rains of .30-1â€, isolated to 1â€+ fell in MGDS, Mato Grosso and Goias over the weekend with dry weather in the rest of the Brazilian growing regi regions north of Parana, with rains of .25-.75â€+ to fall from Parana south later tomorrow into Wednesday. In the 6-10 day period, rains of 1-2â€+ look to fall in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and eastern MGDS, with conditions fairly quiet in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions in this time frame.