-Corn sales marketing year high on previously-announced Mexico purchases
-Soybean sales at top end of expectations
-Wheat sales much better than expected – marketing year high
-SBM sales lower than expected/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 12/12/19, were a marketing year high 1.709 MMT (67.3 million bushels), which fell in line with market expectations of 1.2-2.0 MMT and included previously-announced purchases by Mexico of 1.074 MMT with total purchases by them for the week being 1.166 MMT. The next largest buyer was Colombia with 95k tonnes. Despite the huge sales this week, they were still below last year’s same-week sales of 77.8 mil bu, which were the 2018/19 marketing year high. Total commitments of 677 million bushels are still down 42% from last year’s 1.166 billion at this time and are the lowest for mid-December of the last 7 years and 2nd lowest of the last 33 years. Corn sales will need to average roughly 30 million bushels/week over the rest of 19/20 in order to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 21.6 mil bu/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales were solid at 1.431 MMT (52.6 mil bu), pushing the top end of market expectations of 950k-1.4 MMT and were the best in three weeks. However, this week’s sales were nearly half of last year’s same-week marketing year high sales of 104.1 million bushels. China accounted for 554k tonnes of this week’s sales, with the next largest reported buyer being Taiwan with 94k tonnes. Sales to unknown were roughly 434k tonnes last week. Total commitments of 1.044 billion bushels are now up just 3% from last year’s 1.012 billion after being nearly 10% above year ago levels just four weeks ago and likely to further slip further as year ago sales last week were very strong at 87.9 mil bu, as well. Soybean sales will need to average roughly 20.2 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 21.1 million/week average from this point forward.
Wheat sales were perhaps the standout of the week at 869k tonnes (31.9 mil bu) as there were no previously-announced sales in the daily reporting system, leaving sales well above market expectations of 200-600k tonnes and easily a marketing year high surpassing the previous best sales of 2019/20 of 24.3 mil bu. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 131k tonnes, the Philippines 126k tonnes, unknown 124k and Indonesia 95k. With weak sales last year this week of 11.5 million bushels, total commitments of 655 million bushels rose to a 7% year-over-year gain vs last year’s 613 million, while the USDA is currently estimating 19/20 wheat exports rising 4.2% from last year to 975 million. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.5 mil bu/week over the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s projection vs 14.0 million/week average from this point forward last year.
Soybean meal sales were disappointing at 84k tonnes vs expectations of 150-350k tonnes and were a marketing year low. Total commitments are now down 16% from last year, the lowest year-over-year comparison of 19/20 so far, with sales needing to average roughly 156k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 145k tonnes/week average from this point forward. Soybean oil sales were 28k tonnes, pushing the top end of market expectations of 5-25k and followed last week’s respectable sales of 30k tonnes, but slightly below last year’s 35.7k this week. Total commitments are up 4% from last year vs USDA’s current annual export projection reflecting an expected 12% decline on the year.
