 Grain markets continued to work higher overnight with ongoing optimism the Phase One trade deal with China will spur considerable export activity moving forward. News stories over the weekend were all over the map with Lighthizer stating firm commitments were made by China for specific commodity purchases of $40-50 billion/year for the next two years, while many continue to argue the ability/need/likelihood of imports rising so much. China imported $24 billion in farm products from the U.S. in 2017. Adding to the debate is the fact the China import tariffs on U.S. ag products remain in place at 30% on soybeans, 25% on corn and wheat and 40% on ethanol. The Chinese government is still in control of ag imports as tariff waivers will need to be granted for any private purchases to be economically feasible. While the planned December 15 additional tariffs on both sides were pulled back, the US is maintaining 25% tariffs on roughly $250 billion in Chinese products, while tariffs on $120 billion in goods were reduced to 7 ½% from 15% previously.
 NOPA’s monthly soybean crush data will be out at 11:00 AM CT today. The average estimate of soybean crush by NOPA members in November is 172.0 million bushels (168.6-178.0 million range of ideas), which would be a new record for the month of November in surpassing last year’s 167.0 million, but would be down modestly from 175.4 million bushels in October. The average estimate of end November soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.423 billion pounds (1.372-1.500 billion range), unchanged from October and modestly below year ago November stocks of 1.484 billion.
 Argentina’s new government raised export taxes on grains/oilseeds over the weekend as expected with the rate for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil now at 30% vs roughly 25% previously, with corn and wheat export taxes now at 12% vs roughly 7% previously. The export tax on beef was also raised to 9% from 7%.
 Ukraine ag consultant APK-Inform raised their estimate of the country’s corn crop this year to 33.7 MMT, with 2019/20 exports estimated at 27.0 MMT, both of which are below USDA ideas of 35.5 MMT and 30.0 MMT, respectively. The consultant sees Ukraine’s wheat crop at 28.3 MMT (USDA 29.0 MMT) and exports at 18.9 MMT (USDA 20.0 MMT).
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
Weather Rains of 1-2â€+ fell in Entre Rios and northern Santa Fe, with totals of .25-.75†falling in the rest of the Argentine growing regions over the weekend. Conditions look to be mainly dry across the Argentine growing regions through the first half of Thursday and then rains of .30-1†look to fall with coverage of around 85% by later Thursday into Friday. The 6-10 day period looks dry. Rains of .50-â€, isolated to 1â€+, fell across around 85% of the Brazilian growing regions over the weekend. Tropical, hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .50-1.5 to most of the Brazilian growing regions from Parana north, with only Minas Gerais and northern Goias missing out. A slow moving front will bring rains of 1-2â€+ to most of Santa Catarina and Parana the first half of this week, with conditions mainly dry the rest of the week. Widespread .50-1†rains are expected in the 6-10 day period.