-Brazil bumps soybean crop ideas higher – private estimates moving higher yet
-Dec 15 tariff implementation expected to be postponed
-China raises soybean import/consumption estimates
-Malaysian palm oil stocks modestly higher than expected
-French new crop wheat area seen declining solidly
-USDA report out at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38250. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 CONAB slightly raised their estimate of the coming soybean crop to 121.1 MMT from 120.9 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 115.0 MMT. They bumped planted area up slightly to 36.791 million hectares (90.9 mil acres) from 36.715 mil ha (90.7 mil acres) previously and up moderately from last year’s 35.874 mil ha (88.6 mil acres). USDA last estimated their soybean crop at 123.0 MMT. Separately, Brazilian ag consultant Safras & Mercado’s latest update indicated upside production potential of 125.5 MMT. CONAB sees new crop soybean exports at 72.0 MMT, unchanged from last month and up from 70.0 MMT this year, while USDA has new crop exports at 76.3 MMT, with old crop at 70.0 MMT.
 CONAB’s new crop corn production estimate was essentially unchanged from last month at 98.4 MMT and compares to 100.0 MMT last year. 1st crop production of 26.3 MMT was virtually unchanged from last month and up slightly from 25.6 MMT last year, while 2nd crop (safrinha) production is seen at 70.9 MMT, unchanged from last month and down modestly from 73.2 MMT last year. CONAB left their new crop corn export estimate unchanged from last month at 34.0 MMT and would be down solidly from 39.0 MMT this year. USDA last estimated their new crop at 101.0 MMT, unchanged from last year, and exports at 36.0 MMT vs 41.0 MMT this year.
 It is widely believed that a Phase One trade deal with China will not be finalized by December 15 as the US is focused on getting the USMCA buttoned up with USTR Lighthizer expected to go to Mexico today. However, it is also widely expected the US will not implement the 15% import tariff on an additional $160 billion in Chinese goods set to go into effect December 15 as a goodwill gesture to keep talks going. Dow Jones and Bloomberg stories reiterated this view this morning. On the Chinese side, it is believed new purchases of 1-2 MMT of US soybeans were made in recent days following the recent announcement of renewed tariff waivers. This should sit well with the US as buying continues. In the end, though, it will ultimately be President Trump’s decision whether the Dec 15 tariffs are enacted, but widespread belief is that such action would doom a Phase One deal.
 Yesterday’s final Crop Progress update of the year put the U.S. corn harvest at 92% complete vs 94% expected. 57% of the ND crop remains in the field (~268 million bushels), 26% in WI (~120 mil bu), 26% in MI (~68 mil bu) and 17% in SD (~101 mil bu). IA through IN harvests are 93-96% complete.
 Following the previously-reported raising of China’s official corn production estimate of this year’s crop to 260.8 MMT from 257.1 MMT previously (USDA last at 254.0 MMT), China now sees 2019/20 corn ending stocks declining 17.1 MMT from last year vs previous expectations for a 20.8 MMT decline as they left their total consumption estimate unchanged from last month at 280.8 MMT (274.8 MMT last year). China bumped their 2019/20 soybean import estimate up to 87.7 MMT from 86.2 MMT previously (82.8 MMT last year), with total consumption now see at 105.5 MMT vs 104.9 MMT previously and 102.9 MMT last year. This year’s soybean crop was also raised to 18.1 MMT from 17.2 MMT previously and 16.0 MMT last year. The net effect left China expecting 2019/20 soybean stocks to essentially be unchanged on the year vs last month’s forecast for a 1.6 MMT annual decline.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end November palm oil stocks were 2.256 MMT, above the average market estimate of 2.215 MMT, but down from 2.352 MMT in Oct and 3.007 MMT last year. November palm oil production was 1.538 MMT, below average expectations of 1.610 MMT and declining solidly from 1.796 MMT in Oct and 1.845 MMT last year, but Nov exports of 1.401 MMT were much weaker than expected at 1.557 MMT and down from 1.642 MMT in Oct and comparable to last year’s 1.375 MMT.
 France’s first new crop acreage estimates put soft wheat planted area at 4.729 mil hectares (11.7 mil acres), declining 5.0% from last year amid excessively wet conditions. New crop rapeseed area was seen declining another 4.9%, as well. Updates on this year’s crops put the soft wheat crop at 39.5 MMT, up sharply from last year’s 34.0 MMT, while the rapeseed crop fell to 3.44 MMT from 4.98 MMT last year.
 Following yesterday’s Egyptian wheat tender for Feb 5-15 shipment, the lowest offer was Ukrainian at $237.52/tonne c&f, followed by Romanian at $238.34, French at $238.95 and Russian at $239.40. On Dec 3, Egypt bought 295k tonnes of Russian wheat at $235.17/tonne c&f.
ï‚· South Korea bought 60k tonnes of optional origin feed wheat at $239/tonne c&f for March-April shipment.
Weather Brazil saw rains of .40-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, fall across all but RGDS yesterday. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ are expected for most growing regions from northern Parana north in the next 5 days, while .50-1.5â€+ is expected in most areas in the 6-10 day period, with light totals seen for most of Minas Gerais. In Argentina, .25-.75â€+ is expected on Thursday and again on Saturday, with a drier bias in the south for the next 10 days overall. In the 6-10 day period, .50-1.5†is expected across the northern 1/3 to ½ of Santa Fe, Entre Rios and most of Corrientes. Past 24 Hours