-Algeria plans to sharply reduce annual wheat imports
-Cattle on Feed report trade estimates
-USDA to extend Crop Progress reporting
-USDA announces small corn sales to unknown
-Export Sales generally solid all around
 The Algerian government announced they are planning to sharply reduce soft wheat imports to around 4.0 MMT annually from 6.2 MMT as it looks preserve foreign currency, as well as attempt to reign in reportedly widespread corruption in the grain/flour milling industry. Earlier this year, the head of Algeria’s state grains agency was removed from office, while 45 of the country’s roughly 500 flour mills were closed. An additional 300+ mills are currently under investigation. The 4.0 MMT import target is said to be based analysis of domestic needs to support the heavily-subsidized bread program. Over the last 5-6 years, total Algerian wheat imports by all entities have been roughly 7.5-8.5 MMT annually. With Algeria sourcing the vast majority of their soft wheat imports from France, should the plan be achieved, French wheat will obviously be looking for another home given the 2+ MMT planned reduction. Some are questioning the ability to reduce imports so sharply, though, given the limited domestic production (last year’s crop was an estimated all-time record at just 4.0 MMT, with recent year production of mostly 2-3 MMT).
ï‚· Algeria is believed to have purchased around 500k tonnes of soft wheat in their latest tender, priced at $223-$224/tonne c&f for Jan shipment. Algeria has regularly tendered for/bought around 500k tonnes/month throughout the year for annual state purchases of 6 MMT or so.
 Friday afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average estimate of U.S. cattle on feed as of November 1 is 101.2% of last year (98.2-102.5 range of ideas) and follows Oct 1 on feed of 98.9%. The average estimate of cattle placed on feed in October is 111.4% of last year (96.2-119.0 range of ideas) vs September’s 102.0, while October marketings are estimated at 99.7% of last year (99.3-100.1 range) vs 101.1 in September.  Due to the historically late harvest this year, USDA announced they will continue to collect and report crop progress updates past the planned November 25 cutoff of this year’s reports. Harvest progress will be assessed each week to determine when weekly updates will stop for the year. USDA typically ends the weekly Crop Progress reports the last week of November and restarts them the first week of April.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 106k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
ï‚· During the session yesterday, leading to the midday push lower in soybeans, in particular, wire service headlines/stories ran stating the “Phase One†U.S./China trade deal may not be completed in 2019 as both sides appear to be digging in for additional concessions before finalizing a deal. China reportedly is seeking more extensive tariff rollbacks than initially anticipated, while concrete and significant U.S. ag purchases are sought by the U.S. The next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products are currently set to go into effect December 15. A state-backed media editor tweeted “China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a prolonged trade war.â€
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38127 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were solid at 1.517 MMT (55.7 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 43.5 million and above the range of market ideas of 800k-1.4 MMT, but only slightly above the average sales over the first 11 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year of 51.6 million bushels/week. This week’s activity included 440k tonnes in new net sales to China.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were respectable at 788k tonnes (31.0 million bushels), at the upper end of market expectations of 400-900k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 22.9 million bushels and were the 2nd largest of the first 11 weeks of 2019/20 so far. Additionally, this was just the 2nd week of the marketing year in which corn sales met/exceeded the average “needed” sales pace.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week of 438k tonnes (16.1 mil bu) were at the upper end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, up from the previous week’s poor sales of just 8.7k tonnes, better than last year’s same-week sales of 12.1 mil bu and were the 3rd highest of the last 10 weeks.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 196k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-450k tonnes and easily met the roughly 158k tonnes/week average “needed” sales pace. Soybean oil sales of 39k tonnes were above market expectations of 5-25k tonnes (24k tonnes to South Korea) and were the best of the first 7 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year.
Weather Brazilian growing regions will continue to see rains of 1-2†fall in most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo in the next 5 days, with rains moving into RGDS Monday of next week and little in the way of rainfall elsewhere through Monday. The 6-10 day sees rains of 1-2†to fall across all areas. Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .25-.75†fall across all areas in association with a front that will work through today. The weekend looks to be fairly quiet and then another front is indicated to bring rains of .50-1â€+ to all areas by Monday and Tuesday. Conditions are then indicated to quiet down for the rest of next week.