-Back and forth trade war rhetoric continues
-Next round of aid payments likely to keep farmer selling light
-USDA announces small corn sale to unknown
-Decent rains in South American forecast
-France votes to eliminate palm oil biodiesel tax break
 USDA announced the second tranche of payments from the 2019 farmer trade aid package will begin this week. The initial round of payments included 50% of individual total aid availability, with this round accounting for 25% of total aid, with another 25% still being held for a final 3rd tranche in January if market conditions still warrant. The fresh cashflow could prompt farmers to remain tight holders of this year’s crop hoping for better prices at some point.
 After some positive trade war-related comments over the weekend of latest talks being “constructive†and both sides are “close to a deal,†comments ahead of the re-opening turned negative with Chinese sources expressing disappointment there hasn’t been a tariff rollback commitment by Trump and they may prefer to keep talks going for the time being awaiting further impeachment/re-election prospect developments.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2019/20 delivery this morning.
 U.S. corn harvest progress is expected to be 76-79% complete in this afternoon’s update vs 66% last week, with attention remaining on northern progress with just 15% of the ND crop harvested as of last Sunday, 30% WI and 39% SD. Soybean harvest should move above 90% complete in this afternoon’s update vs 85% last week.
ï‚· Argentine markets are closed today for a local holiday.
 Brazilian ag consultant AgRural sees soybean planted area up 1.5% from last year, with preliminary crop ideas at 120.7 MMT, in line with CONAB’s estimate last week of 120.9 MMT and a bit below USDA’s 123.0 MMT.
 France’s parliament voted to remove tax breaks for palm oil used in biodiesel production continuing the widespread moves across the EU to reduce/eliminate palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC COT data showed fund small net sellers of corn for the week ended 11/12/19 of 6.1k contracts and are net short 111k contracts, net sellers of 27.4k soybeans (net long 31.1k) and 2.5k MPLS wheat (net short 11.6k). On the other side, funds were modest net buyers in SBM of 14.1k contracts (net long 23.5k), 3.5k SBM (net long 88.1k), 11.2k KCBT wheat (net short 22.7k) and 1.0k CBOT wheat (essentially net even).
Weather Overall, the South American forecast remains mostly favorable. Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of 1-2†fall in most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais in the next 5 days, with little in the way of rainfall elsewhere. The 6-10 day sees rains of 1-2†to fall across all areas. Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .50-1â€+ fall across all but Corrientes with a front that will work through on Thursday. The 6-10 day indicates rains of 1-2†to fall in all areas with another front by Monday and Tuesday. Temps will be running near average in most of the South American growing regions in the next 10 days. A weak clipper will bring rains of generally less than .20†to MN, IA and the western ½ of IL later tonight and early tomorrow with other areas remaining dry through Wednesday. Rain ideas for late Wed/Thur have been increased a bit with amounts of .40-1†expected to be widespread across most of the region, with some 1â€+ amounts possible as well. Mixed model ideas exist for the weekend with the GFS keeping things fairly quiet into the weekend, with rains of .25-.75†falling in most of the region Tue-Wed of next week. The European sees rains of .40-.80†for most of MO, IL, IN and OH Saturday and then rains of .40-1†in most of the region by later Wed into Thur of next week.